- Shipping disruptions halt India’s HRC export trade
- Rising freight, insurance costs lead to cautious sentiment
Indian HRC export offers remained absent w-o-w amid the ongoing Iran-Israel-US conflict, which has significantly weighed on trade sentiment across key export markets. Export activity towards major destinations such as Europe and the Middle East remained largely inactive, as escalating geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty around global shipping routes while pushing freight and insurance costs sharply higher. As a result, market participants have largely adopted a wait-and-watch approach, awaiting greater clarity on logistics and freight conditions.
HRC offers to the EU: Indian HRC export offers to Europe remained absent this week amid the ongoing Iran-Israel-US conflict, which has heightened uncertainty across key global shipping routes. Market participants are refraining from issuing fresh offers, adopting a wait-and-watch approach until freight conditions and logistics risks become clearer.
Security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea-Suez Canal corridor have prompted several shipping lines to restrict or suspend transits through these routes. As a result, vessels bound for Europe are increasingly being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-20 days to transit times and pushing freight rates up by around 40-50%. The longer route has made Europe-bound shipments from India both costlier and slower, further limiting export activity.
Moreover, European buyers have turned cautious amid growing uncertainty over import supply, driven by concerns about availability under existing trade policies and the broader uncertainty. As a result, buyers are prioritising domestic procurement to build inventories. However, underlying steel demand across the region still remains subdued.
HRC offers to the Middle East: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East also remained absent this week, with no active offers heard amid the escalating regional tensions. A Middle East-based BigMint source indicated that conditions around the Strait of Hormuz have significantly affected trade flows, severely impacting sea shipments to and from the UAE. As a result, market activity has largely stalled, with participants refraining from new deals.
Freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums have increased sharply, while shipping companies and insurers have become increasingly cautious about operating in the region. These developments have created substantial uncertainty for both new shipments and cargo already in transit.
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global oil trade, has become a major concern for global markets as rising tensions in the region have triggered sharp volatility in energy prices and disrupted shipping routes, adding further cost pressures across the steel supply chain.
Similarly, no firm Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East were heard amid the prevailing uncertainty. China exports roughly 25–30 million tonnes (mnt) of steel annually to the Middle East, making the region an important outlet for its surplus production. However, the current disruption in shipping routes has complicated logistics and temporarily constrained the trade flows.
Meanwhile, May 2026 HRC contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by RMB 48/t ($7/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,260/t ($474/t) on 10 March, compared with RMB 3,212/t ($467/t) on 3 March 2026.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is likely to remain subdued in the near term, as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt key sea routes and keep freight and insurance costs elevated. Market participants are expected to maintain a cautious, wait-and-watch stance until shipping conditions stabilise and regional tensions ease.
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