- Coal receipts trail consumption; 90 plants hold critical stocks
- DAM prices hit INR 10/kWh across evening and overnight hour
India’s electricity system entered October with little relief from September’s fuel and supply pressures. Daytime demand remained elevated, coal generation increased and power plant inventories continued declining. After sunset, shortages and sharply reduced exchange availability exposed the limits of dispatchable supply.
Grid India, CEA and IEX data show that seasonal demand moderation has yet to create sufficient breathing space for coal stock replenishment. The challenge is increasingly about supplying electricity at the right hour while maintaining fuel availability at individual plants.
Daytime adequacy masks evening shortages
Maximum demand met reached 256.26 GW on 3 October and 260.73 GW on 5 October. The approximately 232 GW and 237 GW figures recorded on those dates refer specifically to non-solar-hour maximum demand met.
Despite the lower evening load, non-solar peak shortages reached 5.81 GW on 3 October and 5.56 GW on 5 October. At the reported solar-hour peaks, shortages were zero. Daily energy shortages also increased from 9.18 MU on 1 October to 31.85 MU on 5 October.
This divergence is central to the market outlook. Meeting a higher daytime peak does not establish that sufficient supply is available after solar generation recedes. Thermal availability, hydro, wind and the location of available capacity become more consequential during these hours.
Early October: demand, fuel and market indicators
Coal generation remains high as hydro support softens
Coal generation averaged 3,938 MU/day during 1-5 October, reaching 4,057 MU on 5 October. Its contribution remained close to 68% of gross generation throughout the period.
Hydro averaged 552 MU/day, while RES supplied approximately 914 MU/day. Renewables therefore continued making a substantial contribution, but their daily output alone cannot indicate how much electricity was available during evening scarcity.
Reported generation outages across the central and state sectors ranged from 37.86 GW to 42.35 GW. These figures establish a broader availability constraint, although the reports do not attribute every outage to coal shortages.
Coal deliveries still lag consumption
Across the monitored fleet, receipts totalled 12.82 mnt during 1-5 October against consumption of 13.46 mnt-a shortfall of approximately 0.64 mnt.
Domestic-coal-based plants, including the washery-reject category within CEA’s DCB aggregate, received 12.16 mnt against consumption of 12.69 mnt. Their total inventories, including imported coal, declined from 18.60 mnt on 1 October to 18.22 mnt on 5 October.
Within that balance, indigenous coal stocks fell from 18.21 mnt to 17.83 mnt. The distinction matters: indigenous stocks and total stocks at domestic-coal plants are different measures.
DCB critical plants increased from 77 to 82, having reached 84 on 4 October. Including imported-coal-based plants, the total reached 90 on 5 October. CEA classifies stocks below 25% of normative requirements as critical. Reporting adjustments mean daily stock movements need not exactly match receipts minus consumption.
Thin buffers leave individual plants exposed
On 5 October, Kalisindh held just 20,600 tonnes, or 6% of normative stock; Kota held 27,000 tonnes, or 7%; and Chhabra-II held 28,100 tonnes, or 8%.
Domestic non-pithead plants collectively held only 29% of normative inventory, compared with 48% at pithead plants. This uneven distribution increases the importance of timely transport and plant-specific replenishment.
DAM reveals a widening gap between buying interest and availability
Between 1 and 6 October, daily DAM purchase bids increased 40.1% to 1.30 million MWh, while sell bids declined 16.4% to 267,265 MWh. Cleared volumes fell 20.1% to 132,192 MWh, equivalent to just 10.2% of purchase bids.
The hourly MCP reached INR 10/kWh for 16 hours on 6 October. During daylight, however, prices fell towards INR 2/kWh as sell-side availability improved.
Unfilled bids cannot be equated with national unmet electricity demand. Nevertheless, their scale, alongside repeated price-ceiling hours and NLDC shortages, provides strong evidence of tight exchange supply during particular periods.
Procurement response and BigMint assessment
NTPC reportedly plans to procure approximately 10 mnt from commercial mines during October-March FY27. This would broaden fuel sourcing as generation requirements rise, although the reported plan is based on an unnamed official rather than a confirmed company announcement.
Early October’s evidence points to persistent pressure on reliable non-solar supply. The immediate test is whether coal receipts can sustainably exceed consumption and rebuild inventories at vulnerable plants. Until that happens, daytime price relief may coexist with expensive evening electricity, keeping replenishment, logistics and dispatchable generation central to the market outlook.
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