India: Delhi wheat prices hold firm as export demand offsets limited mill buying

• Delhi wheat prices rose INR 5/quintal to INR 2,960–2,975 as export demand offset cautious flour-mill buying.
• Eased export rules and lower Russian shipments support the bullish outlook, with INR 3,000 as the key resistance.

India’s wheat market remained firm on 3 September, with Delhi Lawrence Road prices at INR 2,960–2,975/quintal. Although flour mills remained cautious in their purchases, export demand, particularly from Bangladesh, and limited near-term availability continued to support prices. The removal of export restrictions on wheat and wheat products has further improved the demand outlook.

Export demand strengthens domestic market

Export activity remains an important price driver, with export bid indications at Kandla reported at INR 2,960–2,980/quintal. Madhya Pradesh-origin wheat for Kandla was indicated at INR 2,800–2,825/quintal, while Bihar-origin wheat for Bangladesh was at INR 2,875–2,880/quintal. Bangladesh-bound loading has reached about 42,200 tonnes, including 20,000 tonnes by rail and 22,200 tonnes by road, with Darshana and Rohanpur delivery points active. The 42,200 tonnes represents reported Bangladesh-bound loading, not India’s total wheat export volume.

The government has moved wheat, atta, maida and suji exports into the free-export category by removing earlier restrictions. This improves India’s export prospects, with the market assessment indicating potential 2026-27 exports of around 5 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of wheat products, translating into an estimated export opportunity of more than $1.5 billion.

Domestic availability remains supportive despite cautious mill buying. Delhi mill-quality wheat was reported at INR 2,940–2,945/quintal, while Patna, Samastipur, Bahjoi and Kareli prices rose INR 30, INR 50, INR 25 and INR 70, respectively. Gorakhpur Net declined INR 30 to INR 2,890, while Gorakhpur Mandi was unchanged at INR 2,700, with arrivals of around 5,000 bags.

OMSS, production and global supply risks support wheat market

Government wheat selling has yet to create fresh supply pressure, as OMSS sales have not started. For 2026-27, the reserve price is INR 2,600/quintal for FAQ wheat and INR 2,585/quintal for URS wheat, excluding transportation costs. Meanwhile, India’s 2025-26 wheat production is estimated at a record 120.657 million tonnes (12.07 crore tonnes), up 2.712 million tonnes from 117.945 million tonnes in 2024-25, according to the agriculture ministry’s Third Advance Estimates.

Despite higher production, near-term availability remains relatively tight, while export demand is providing an additional outlet for supplies. The upcoming festive season could also support demand for wheat-based products.

Global supply concerns are adding to the support. Russia’s September wheat export estimate is around 2 million tonnes, compared with about 4.6 million tonnes a year earlier, as lower shipments, port disruptions and infrastructure constraints restrict Black Sea exports.

Global FOB wheat prices remain firm, with Russia Black Sea wheat at $210–230/mt, Ukraine at $230–235/mt, Romania/Bulgaria at $240–255/mt, France at $260–270/mt, Argentina at $245–255/mt, Australia at $290–300/mt, Canada at $265–280/mt, US Gulf SRW at $270–285/mt and HRW at $300–330/mt.

Global futures were mixed. CBOT September wheat was at $7.54, down 9%, while December was at $7.74, down 8%. KC September and December were at $8.14 and $8.34, respectively, both down 11%, while Minneapolis spring wheat September and December rose 4% and 5% to $7.60 and $7.82. The market recorded 9 CBOT September and 29 KC delivery notices.

Outlook

Delhi wheat retains a stable-to-strong bullish bias, with INR 2,900/quintal as the key support and INR 2,970–3,000 as the resistance zone. A sustained break above INR 3,000 could push prices toward INR 3,050/quintal, while INR 2,860 remains the indicated stop-loss.

Export demand, eased export policy, limited immediate OMSS supply and Black Sea supply risks are outweighing cautious flour-mill buying. Sustaining above INR 3,000 will be crucial for the next leg of the uptrend, while a break below INR 2,900 would weaken the bullish view.