- Stocks decline 11% w-o-w, limiting impact of higher arrivals
- Rising futures prices, declining OI suggest short covering
India’s cumin market remained firm during the week ended 25 September despite a sharp rise in arrivals. The BigMint Ex-Unjha cumin benchmark increased 1.9% w-o-w to INR 22,306/quintal (qtl) from INR 21,895/qtl, while mandi spot prices rose 2.2% to INR 22,004/qtl from INR 21,523/qtl.
Prices rise despite higher arrivals
Cumin arrivals increased 54.9% w-o-w to 10,792 t from 6,969 t, indicating higher near-term availability. However, stocks declined 11% to 3,835 t from 4,311 t, limiting the impact of increased arrivals on market sentiment.
Futures gain on short covering
October cumin futures rose 2.1% w-o-w to INR 22,310/qtl on 25 September from INR 21,860/qtl on 18 September. Open interest declined 11.2% to 6,840 t from 7,698 t. Rising prices and declining open interest suggest short covering rather than fresh long buildup.
November futures were quoted at INR 22,745/qtl on 25 September, with open interest at 1,512 t, indicating a shift in positions toward the new contract. The September contract, with open interest at 468 t ahead of expiry, is excluded from directional interpretation.
Outlook
Cumin prices may remain supported in the near term as lower stocks and firm futures offset pressure from higher arrivals. However, sustained higher arrivals could limit further gains if demand does not keep pace.
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