India: Cotton production forecast at 24.5 million bales in 2026/27

• Production forecast at 24.5 million bales amid weather and planting delays
• Mill use raised to 26.2 million bales on stronger export demand

India’s 2026/27 (October-September) cotton production is forecast at 24.5 million 480-lb bales from 11.5 million hectares, with below-normal rainfall and delayed planting expected to weigh on yields even as stronger textile exports lift domestic mill demand, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report.

Lower yields and uneven monsoon threaten crop prospects

The USDA maintained its harvested area forecast at 11.5 million hectares, but projected yields at 464 kg/hectare, around 2% lower than previously expected as below-normal rainfall through August and September is forecast across western and central India, where much of the country’s rain-fed cotton is grown.

The report noted that the cumulative southwest monsoon deficit had narrowed to 12% below normal by 12 August, allowing sowing to recover from a slow start. Cotton acreage nevertheless remained around 2% below last year at the end of July, with approximately 10.35 million hectares planted. Reservoir storage stood at 60% of capacity, while August rainfall will be critical as much of the crop enters squaring, flowering and early boll-development stages. Well-distributed rainfall would support yield potential, although excessive rainfall in parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh could also increase waterlogging, disease and pest risks.

Regional conditions remain uneven. Maharashtra and Gujarat, which together account for roughly half of India’s cotton production, continue to report lower acreage than a year earlier, while Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have offset part of the national shortfall through stronger planting. According to the USDA, relatively stronger returns from competing crops such as soybean, sesamum and groundnut could also encourage farmers in some regions to shift acreage away from cotton.

Stronger textile exports lift mill demand

FAS Mumbai raised its domestic mill consumption forecast to 26.2 million bales, citing stronger textile and apparel export orders and improved capacity utilisation following recent trade agreements, including the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, alongside existing agreements with the UAE and Australia.

The report noted that cotton yarn exports during August-June of the current marketing year were 9% higher year-on-year and remained well above the five-year average, while textile production also continued to expand. Higher domestic lint prices, however, have discouraged mills from building inventories beyond immediate operational requirements.

Higher prices expected to constrain exports

Higher minimum support prices, tighter crop prospects and stronger domestic consumption are expected to keep lint prices firm, limiting India’s raw cotton exportable surplus. The report expects exports of 1.2 million bales in 2026/27 as more fibre is directed towards higher-value textile manufacturing rather than raw cotton shipments.

If the government’s temporary duty exemption on cotton imports expires after 31 October, mills are expected to rely increasingly on duty-free import mechanisms available to export-oriented units to bridge shortages of higher-quality fibre. The report also noted that imports are likely to remain concentrated in contamination-free, machine-picked cotton from suppliers such as Brazil, Australia and the US.

Outlook

The USDA outlook points to a tighter domestic cotton balance in 2026/27 as lower production coincides with stronger mill demand. Weather during the remainder of the monsoon, the government’s decision on import duties after 31 October, and the pace of textile exports will determine whether domestic supplies tighten further or mills increasingly turn to imported fibre.