India: Cotton prices under pressure as global rates ease and arrivals rise

• Global cotton futures ease to 80.13 cents/lb from 93 cents/lb
• New-crop arrivals rise to 50,000-55,000 bales/day amid muted demand

India’s cotton market is likely to remain under pressure as weaker global prices, rising new crop arrivals and muted mill demand weigh on domestic values. However, expectations of lower production could provide some medium-term support.

Global weakness weighs on domestic prices

December cotton futures, have declined to around 80.13 cents/lb, from a peak of 93 cents/lb at end-August. The weaker global trend has pulled domestic cotton prices down to INR 64,500-65,500/candy (356 kg) from around INR 70,000/candy.

Cotton Corporation of India auction prices for the 2025-26 crop have also fallen by around INR 1,200/candy over the past two days. Cottonseed prices have declined by INR 300-400/quintal to INR 4,600-4,700/quintal, adding further pressure on raw cotton values.

Rising arrivals, cautious mill buying

New-crop arrivals are currently estimated at 50,000-55,000 bales/day, with volumes expected to increase sharply during October. Mills remain cautious, with stocks covering around 1-1.5 months, while multinationals and resellers are offering cotton at INR 64,500-65,500/candy.

Limited old-crop availability outside spinning mills could provide some support, but rising new-season supply is likely to dominate the near-term market.

Lower crop may limit downside

The 2026-27 cotton crop is estimated to decline by around 10% following lower acreage and deficient rainfall during June-September across the 10 cotton-growing states. Reduced water availability could affect subsequent pickings and yields.

Outlook

Cotton prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term as arrivals accelerate and global rates weaken. However, lower crop expectations, limited old-crop availability and potential changes in duty-free import policy could restrict a deeper decline.