Gradual pick-up in economic activities has helped India’s power generation to attain pre-lockdown levels during Jul ’20, as it recorded its highest total for FY ’21.
Tentative data provided by power ministry indicate that total power output from conventional sources has increased 8% m-o-m to 108.47 BU (Billion Units) in Jul ’20 against 100.14 BU in Jun ’20, at a time when monthly target was lowered by 5% to 112.91 BU.
With the rise in electricity demand majorly from the Northern and Western regions, there was a moderate recovery noted on the y-o-y basis as well. Ending series of decline seen in the past three months, power output in Jul ’20 registered a marginal growth compared with 108.41 BU in Jul ’19.
Source-wise generation:
Given the must run status for hydro power plants, generation from thermal plants remain affected on account of the fresh lock-downs being imposed to curb the spread of COVID-19.
* Thermal power generation increased 10% m-o-m to 85.65 BU in Jul ’20, but was marked 2% lower on the year from 87.37 BU in Jul ’19. In addition, the plants were operating at a comparatively low PLF of 52.92%.
* On the other hand, power output from hydro plants surged 14% y-o-y to 17.92 BU in Jul ’20, besides, attaining its set target for the month.
* Generation from nuclear plants continued the downtrend, as it fell to a 5-month low of 3.27 BU in Jul ’20.
| Conventional Source | Generation Target for Jul’20 | Generation in Jul’20 | Generation in Jun’20 | Generation in Jul’19 |
| Thermal | 91.54 | 85.65 | 78.15 | 87.37 |
| Hydro | 16.30 | 17.92 | 17.02 | 15.78 |
| Nuclear | 4.07 | 3.27 | 3.76 | 4.38 |
| Bhutan Imports | 1.00 | 1.63 | 1.21 | 0.88 |
| Total | 112.91 | 108.47 | 100.14 | 108.41 |
Source: Power Ministry| Quantity in BU
Declining stock to support coal supply:
Amid higher coal consumption, inventories at power plants have fallen below 40 mn t for the first time in FY ’21. Data provided by CEA shows that coal stock decreased 10% m-o-m to 39.68 mn t as on 10 Aug ’20 compared with 43.88 mn t recorded on 10 Jul ’20.
Prolonged impositions of restrictions and higher stockpiles have drastically affected coal-fired generation, due to which power producers were seen reluctant to lift their share of coal supplies.
During the first four months of FY ’21 (Apr-Jul ’20), coal-fired generation was down by 20% y-o-y to 277.02 BU compared with 347.27 BU in the corresponding period of previous fiscal.
However, with gradual decline in stock and anticipated growth in industrial activities post-monsoon, it is expected that demand for coal would improve from the power sector.
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