India: Coal freights fall w-o-w on key routes except South Africa-India

• Weak cargo volumes, limited fixtures weigh on rates
• Rising portside coal inventories suggest muted demand

Coal freights for India declined w-o-w on key routes, except from South Africa, due to varying supply-demand dynamics.

The decline could be attributed to an oversupply of vessels for prompt loading dates. The Pacific basin experienced a high tonnage build-up with limited fresh cargoes entering the market. This imbalance between supply and demand led to intensified competition among shipowners, pushing them to reduce their freight offers to secure cargoes. Overall, limited fixtures were seen in the period under review.

In contrast, Panamax freights from South Africa to India showed an uptrend, largely due to tighter vessel availability and steadier cargo flows from South African ports. Unlike the Pacific basin, South Africa did not witness the same scale of vessel oversupply.

Adding to bearish sentiment in the Pacific, thermal coal inventories at Indian ports rose by 7% to 14.22 million tonnes (mnt) in week 18 of CY’25 from 13.29 mnt in the previous week, according to BigMint data. This suggests muted demand for imported thermal coal in India.

Baltic indices show mixed trends w-o-w: The Baltic indices, which indicate trends in vessel demand, exhibited mixed trends w-o-w. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 1,421 on 8 May, up by 48 points w-o-w. However, the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) dipped by 24 points to 1,368 on 8 May against 1,392 on 28 April. Additionally, the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) was assessed at 955 on 8 May, inching down by 22 points w-o-w, indicating ongoing weakness in mid-sized vessel markets.

Route specifications

• Australia-India rates decrease: Freights from Australia to India dipped by $0.20/tonne (t) w-o-w, with BigMint’s assessment indicating that rates for Hay Point Port to Paradip were at $14.4/dry metric tonne (dmt). Sources informed that SAIL booked one Panamax vessel from Australia to Vizag at $14.65/t, with shipment scheduled for 1-10 May.
• South Africa-India freights increase: Freights from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) to Paradip climbed up by $0.3/t w-o-w to $13.1/t, driven by tight vessel supply and steady demand from Indian buyers for May-end shipments.
• Indonesia-India freights drop: Freights for coal shipments from East Kalimantan to Paradip stood at $13.5/t, decreasing by $0.6/t w-o-w, as vessel oversupply and low cargo demand continued to weigh on market sentiment. A lack of fresh fixtures and declining bids also contributed to the downturn.