- Monsoon disruption eases, boosting CIL’s production
- Power plants receive 20 mnt but burn 23 mnt during 1-9 Sep
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has begun to recover production and accelerate supplies in September as rainfall eases across key mining regions, but the improvement has yet to arrest the continuing depletion of coal inventories at India’s thermal power plants.
CIL’s production rose to around 1.91 mnt on 8 September, about 40% above the average 1.36 million tonnes (mnt)/day recorded during 1-3 September. Supplies to the power sector simultaneously increased around 27% to 1.74 mnt/day, as mine conditions and coal evacuation improved.
Official National Coal Portal data available through 7 September show CIL produced 11.32 mnt, up 3.4% y-o-y, although still at around 94% of its pro-rata target. Production on 7 September itself reached 1.916 mnt against a target of 1.718 mnt.
For example, Northern Coalfields Ltd, which supplies around 87% of its coal to the power sector, recorded a particularly sharp recovery after rainfall subsided. Production on 8 September was 67% above the 1-3 September average, while dispatches increased 75%. Rail loading increased to 41 rakes from an average 19 during the opening three days.
Power plants continue consuming inventories
The urgency behind CIL’s supply push becomes clearer from BigMint’s analysis of CEA’s daily plant-level coal data.
The striking feature is that receipts failed to match consumption on every day during 1-9 September.
CEA data show stocks falling from 28.64 mnt on 1 September to 25.84 mnt on 9 September, while the number of plants classified as critical increased from 45 to 59. Stocks on 9 September represented only 44% of normative requirements.
The pressure also intensified progressively during the opening days. Stocks fell below 27 mnt by 5 September, when 58 plants were critical. They declined further to 26.40 Mnt on 7 September, with the critical count reaching 61.
Aug’26 explains why CIL is under pressure to raise output
The September recovery follows a difficult August, when CIL production fell to around 47.5 mnt, down approximately 5.6% y-o-y, as monsoon rainfall disrupted mining. However, CIL maintained consumer supplies, with August offtake rising to around 60.6 mnt, about 5.6% higher y-o-y.
That divergence is significant. CIL dispatched roughly 13 mnt more coal than it produced during August, effectively using accumulated pithead stocks to protect downstream consumers. The strategy helped sustain power generation but transferred the inventory pressure through the coal supply chain.
Higher output faces continued pressure from power demand
The early-September recovery in CIL production is positive, but higher output alone is unlikely to translate immediately into a sustained increase in power-plant stocks.
Coal movement is also being prioritised nationally as the government seeks to rebuild power-plant inventories. However, elevated electricity demand is keeping coal consumption high. Peak power demand crossed 260 GW on 8 September, supporting continued coal-fired generation and limiting the pace at which additional coal production can build stocks at power plants.
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