- Importers delay bulk purchases amid lack of clarity on price direction
- Production expected to decline to 33,000 t amid weather, pest pressure
India’s cardamom exports are witnessing slower overseas demand as elevated domestic prices have reduced export enquiries, with importers shifting to smaller and more frequent purchases instead of building large inventories while awaiting clarity on the new crop. Buyers are shifting towards smaller and more frequent procurements while monitoring monsoon progress and its impact on the new crop. Export enquiries have softened due to higher prices rather than weaker consumption, while concerns over lower domestic production and a global supply deficit continue to support market sentiment.
Demand remains cautious
Higher cardamom prices have reduced export enquiries from key overseas markets, with importers delaying fresh orders until there is greater clarity on crop prospects and price direction. Long-term demand for premium Indian green cardamom remains firm, but buyers are avoiding inventory build-up in anticipation that favourable rainfall could improve production and stabilise prices. Domestic buying has also moderated, with consumers increasingly shifting towards smaller pack sizes.The average market price is currently hovering between ₹3,000 and ₹3,300 per kg compared with the earlier range of ₹2,700 to ₹2,900 per kg.
Weather clouds supply outlook
The new harvest season has begun under challenging weather conditions, with deficient monsoon rainfall during June and July resulting in flower and fruit drop, poor pod setting, and estimated crop losses of 20-25% across major producing regions. Although recent rainfall has provided temporary relief, forecasts of another dry spell from mid-August, coupled with rising infestations of root grubs and nematodes, continue to threaten crop development.
As a result, the 2026-27 crop is now projected at 33,000 tonnes (t), down from the earlier estimate of 40,000 t and below the 2025-26 production of 37,733 t. Meanwhile, production by Guatemala, the world’s largest producer and exporter of green cardamom, is expected to recover to 25,000-28,000 t from 17,000 t last season, but the global cardamom market is still projected to remain in deficit. Domestic demand is expected to improve during August, although weather risks linked to El Nino and potential drought conditions in early 2027 remain a concern.
Outlook
India’s cardamom market is expected to remain firm in the near term as lower domestic production prospects outweigh the anticipated recovery in Guatemala’s crop. Export demand is likely to remain cautious until there is better visibility on the new crop, while weather conditions during August will be critical in determining supply and price direction.
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