India: Bulk HRC imports fall by 20% y-o-y in Dec’25

• M-o-m, however, imports rise sharply by 46% 
• 3-year safeguard duty to keep steel dumping in check

India’s bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in December 2025 totalled 380,944 tonnes (t), a decline of 20% from 473,222 t in December 2024. However, imports rose by 46% compared to 260,212 t recorded in November which had seen higher shipments ahead of an anticipated trade policy measure.

In December, South Korea, China and Japan emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters shipping 140,080 t, 108,689 t and 76,556 t, respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 26% y-o-y and those from Japan saw a marginal drop of 2%, while shipments from China climbed by 96% over the same period.

The m-o-m rise in HRC imports reflects the gap between expiry of the provisional 200-day safeguard duty on flat steel products and the final implementation of the staggered duty for three years on 30 December last.

Staggered safeguard duty

The government has announced the imposition of a safeguard duty on non-alloy and alloy steel flat product imports, representing a major trade policy measure to protect the domestic steel industry from rising import pressure.

The move follows a detailed investigation by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), which found that a sudden and significant surge in imports had caused and posed a threat of serious injury to Indian steelmakers.

The duty will be levied for a period of three years, beginning respectively from the date of provisional duty imposition on 21 April 2025.

Safeguard duty tiers

Under the notification, the safeguard duty has been structured on a declining scale:

• 12% ad valorem from 21 April 2025 to 20 April 2026
• 11.5% from 21 April 2026 to 20 April 2027
• 11% from 21 April 2027 to 20 April 2028.

Provided that the said safeguard duty shall not be levied for the period commencing from the date of the lapse of the provisional safeguard duty up to the preceding day of the publication of the notification in the official gazette.

Export volumes climb

On the export front, India’s bulk HRC export volumes jumped to 69% y-o-y in December to 430,090 t compared to an estimated 254,930 t in December 2024, supported by firm global demand, especially from the EU ahead of CBAM implementation.

Additionally, export volumes saw an uptick of 15 % m-o-m compared to 373,986 t shipped in November, aided by stronger allocations and sustained buying interest from the EU and Middle East.

Outlook

In the near term, trade flows will be shaped by safeguard duty enforcement, with lower import volumes supporting domestic prices.