India: Bulk HRC imports decline by 37% y-o-y in Aug’25

• Imports from SK, China, Japan fall by over 25% y-o-y
• HRC exports surge amid aggressive shipments to EU

India’s bulk hot-rolled coils (HRC) imports in August 2025 totalled 394,083 tonnes (t), a decline of 37% from 624,179 t in August 2024, according to BigMint data. Moreover, imports dropped by 19% against 484,879 t in July 2025.

In August, South Korea, China, and Japan emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 134,503 t, 102,957 t, and 78,864 t, respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 26% y-o-y, and shipments from Japan and China dropped by 28% over the same period.

Key industry highlights

DGTR imposes anti-dumping duty on Vietnamese steel: India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has proposed a $121.5/t duty on hot-rolled flat steel imports from Vietnam for five years, citing high dumping margins, material injury to domestic mills, and risks from Vietnam’s planned capacity expansion. The move is expected to offer relief to Indian mills from cheap imports, underscoring India’s proactive use of trade remedies to safeguard strategic sectors.

DGTR recommends safeguard duties on flat steel imports: The DGTR has recommended staggered safeguard duties of 12%, 11.5%, and 11% over three years on imports of certain flat rolled steel products, following an investigation that found rising imports were causing serious injury to domestic producers. Initiated in 2024, the probe — based on a petition by the Indian Steel Association — highlighted issues such as price undercutting, declining profits, and reduced capacity utilisation. The duties aim to restore fair competition and provide relief to local mills, with the final decision now pending with the Ministry of Finance.

The safeguard measure will apply across all exporting countries, with import price thresholds set to exempt higher-priced shipments. While expected to stabilise domestic prices and improve utilisation, the move could raise costs for downstream industries such as automotive and construction that rely on specialised steel grades. India’s finished flat steel imports have already declined in recent months, indicating an early market reaction to the potential duties.

Export volumes surge y-o-y

On the export front, India’s bulk HRC export volumes hiked sharply by 289% y-o-y in August 2025 to 239,537 t compared to 61,528 t in August 2024. Additionally, volumes rose by 89% m-o-m compared to 126,896 t in July 2025.

India’s HRC export activity remained upbeat, with bookings resuming from the Middle East and aggressive allocations being made to Europe ahead of CBAM implementation. Moreover, the government’s push for an FTA with Europe has further lifted market confidence, supporting expectations of sustained export momentum in the near term.

Outlook

The recommendations are expected to provide relief to Indian steelmakers facing pricing pressure from low-cost imports, while signalling India’s continued vigilance in using trade remedies to protect strategic industries. In the near term, market activity is expected to remain cautious as stakeholders await the Finance Ministry’s final decision. If safeguard duties are implemented, domestic mills may secure greater pricing leverage, though a lasting recovery will depend on stronger demand.