- Improving coal enquiry meets tighter prompt tonnage
- West Coast India demand supports Supramax amid thin fixing
India-bound coal freight markets turned firmer in the week ended 3 September 2026, led by stronger Panamax sentiment across the Pacific and Atlantic. Active coal demand, interest in prompt tonnage and a sharp recovery in the broader dry bulk market supported Panamax sentiment. Indonesia-India Supramax also found support, although limited fresh cargoes and cautious charterer ideas kept activity selective.
Panamax market gains momentum on stronger coal demand
The Panamax market gathered pace during the week, particularly in the Pacific, where Australian coal demand and prompt tonnage interest provided support. Firmer Capesize sentiment and rising freight derivative rates further strengthened owner confidence.
A shipbroker said, “Australian and Indonesian coal demand remains healthy, with prompt tonnage attracting significant interest. The stronger Capesize market is also supporting Panamax sentiment.”
The firmer trend extended to South Africa-India, with improving coal enquiry and tighter prompt tonnage pushing rates to over one-week highs. Atlantic sentiment also remained firm, despite uneven cargo replenishment.
Supramax finds support on India demand
Supramax activity remained selective, with Indonesia-India fixing still limited and fresh cargo availability uneven. However, West Coast India demand provided support, while owners remained reluctant to chase lower charterer ideas.
A shipbroker said, “Fresh Indonesia-India enquiries remain thin, but owners are showing little willingness to chase cargoes, particularly for West Coast India.”
The balance between fresh cargo availability and vessel positioning will remain key for Indonesia-India Supramax freight. Limited enquiry could keep activity measured, while firm West Coast India demand and owner resistance to lower bids may continue to support freight ideas.
Market highlights
- Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rises sharply w-o-w: The BDI rose 25.6% (712 points) w-o-w to 3,488 as of 3 September, from 2,776 a week earlier. Panamax gained 9.4% (211 points) to 2,457, while Supramax edged up 1.5% (24 points) to 1,668. The weekly increase marked a significant acceleration from the previous week, when the BDI had risen 10.1%, with the latest gains led by a sharp recovery in Capesize rates and firmer Panamax sentiment. Supramax, in contrast, remained largely stable with only a marginal weekly increase. The BDI also reached its highest level since October 2021.
- Bunker prices rise w-o-w: Singapore VLSFO bunker prices increased by $71/tonne (t) (9.2%) w-o-w to $843/t, from $772/t. The increase tracked the broader recovery in crude prices, with Middle East supply and shipping disruptions adding upward pressure to marine fuel markets.
- Brent crude futures rebound w-o-w: Brent crude futures for the November 2026 contract rose by $6.75/barrel (bbl) (7.6%) w-o-w to $95.15/bbl, from $88.40/bbl. The sharp rebound was driven by renewed US-Iran tensions, heightened Middle East supply risks and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while potential diplomatic progress and higher Iraqi exports capped some upside.
- DCE coke futures rise w-o-w: January 2027 DCE coke futures rose 4.7% (RMB 98/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,173/t ($323.52/t) as of 4 September, from RMB 2,075/t ($308.65/t) a week earlier. The increase was stronger than the previous week’s 2.9% gain, indicating firmer sentiment in the coke futures market.
Outlook
BigMint expects Panamax sentiment to remain firm, supported by Australian and Indonesian coal demand, prompt tonnage interest and stronger broader dry bulk sentiment. South Africa-India freight could retain support if coal enquiry and Atlantic activity remain healthy.
Supramax is likely to remain rangebound to firm, with Indonesia-India fixing, West Coast India demand and vessel positioning determining near-term direction. Limited fresh cargoes may cap activity, while owner resistance to lower bids could provide a floor to freight levels.
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