- Major mills raise list prices by INR 1,000/t, reinforcing upward price expectations
- Major PSU steelmaker resumes operations, but supply recovery remains gradual
Indian trade-level blast furnace (BF)-route rebar prices rose by INR 400/tonne (t) ($4/t) w-o-w to INR 64,300/t ($677/t) ex-Mumbai, according to BigMint’s assessment of distributor-to-dealer transactions on 16 October 2026.
The market continued to strengthen on sustained project demand and limited material availability. Although a major PSU steelmaker has resumed operations following scheduled maintenance, the recovery in supply remains gradual. In the second week of October, several major mills raised list prices by up to INR 1,000/t, reinforcing bullish sentiment amid persistent supply constraints and expectations of further price hikes. Limited prompt availability continues to support upward price revisions by mills.
Inventory levels at mills were estimated at 5-7 days. With the festive season approaching, distributors have also started considering fresh purchases to replenish stocks, adding to demand support.
In the project segment, workable prices were reported at INR 65,000-66,000/t ($685-695/t) landed. Procurement continued despite higher prices, as some buyers sought to secure material against the possibility of further increases and uncertain supply. Several mills were exploring additional price revisions, reflecting the limited availability of material for prompt delivery.
With the latest increase, BF-route rebar prices have reached their highest levels in recent years, underpinned by constrained supplies, project-related buying and successive mill price hikes.
Key market developments
IF-route rebar correction deepens on weak retail offtake
Induction furnace (IF)-route rebar prices fell by INR 500-1,600/t across major markets during the week. Raigarh, Hyderabad, Jalna and Jaipur recorded the sharpest declines as subdued retail offtake restricted fresh bookings and forced prices lower.
IF-route producers were holding approximately 8-10 days of inventory, while confirmed order visibility stood at just 3-5 days, depending on the market. The mismatch between available stocks and limited demand continued to weigh on pricing.
Trading activity is likely to remain subdued in the near term as the festive period approaches. Buyers are largely avoiding bulk purchases and limiting procurement to immediate consumption needs. A sustained recovery in end-user demand will be essential for prices to regain upward momentum.
In Mumbai, the differential between BF- and IF-route rebar widened further to approximately INR 10,800/t w-o-w. IF-route material continues to account for an estimated 65-70% of India’s rebar market.
Raw material prices remain largely stable
Input costs for BF-route steelmakers remained mixed during the week, with stability in iron ore prices offset by a marginal decline in imported coking coal.
BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index was unchanged w-o-w at INR 5,500/t ($58/t) ex-mines as of 10 October.
Meanwhile, premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices slipped by $1/t to $293/t CNF Paradip. The marginal reduction provided some cost relief to integrated producers, although its impact on overall production economics remained limited.
Project update
India’s infrastructure sector witnessed significant project activity across highways, metro rail, railway infrastructure, bridges, power transmission and urban development, with several companies announcing new contracts and order inflows. Major developments included Afcons Infrastructure’s INR 1,632 crore contract for Lucknow Metro, NCC’s INR 1,286 crore radial road project in Telangana, and IRCON International’s INR 862.46 crore railway track construction contract.
Outlook
The BF-route rebar market is expected to remain firm amid tight supplies, sluggish production recovery, and project-led demand. However, festive disruptions, IF-route price corrections, and cautious buying may limit further gains.
Going forward, market direction will depend on how quickly mills restore normal output, whether distributors continue restocking, and how project demand holds up during the festive period. Any prolonged supply tightness could continue to underpin BF-route rebar prices, while a faster recovery in availability or weaker buying could limit further gains.
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