- Kochi spot prices rise 0.6% w-o-w to INR 729/kg
- December futures gain 2.3% to INR 752/kg
India’s black pepper market strengthened in the week ended 12 October, supported by sharply lower arrivals and gains across spot and futures prices. Kochi spot prices increased to INR 729/kg from INR 725/kg, while October futures rose to INR 732/kg from INR 728/kg. December futures advanced to INR 752/kg from INR 735/kg. Meanwhile, arrivals declined to 754 tonnes (t) from 1,379 t, while Kochi stocks remained unchanged at 35 t.
December futures outperform
Kochi spot prices increased 0.6% w-o-w, while October futures gained 0.5%. December futures recorded a stronger 2.3% increase, widening the spread between December and October contracts to INR 20/kg from INR 7/kg.
The stronger performance of December futures indicates a firmer price trend for the deferred contract, although the sustainability of these gains will depend on supply and demand conditions.
Open interest declines sharply
October futures open interest fell 92.1% to five contracts from 63, despite rising prices. This combination indicates reduced outstanding positions but does not establish whether long liquidation or short covering drove the movement.
Lower arrivals support market
Black pepper arrivals declined 45.3% to 754 t from 1,379 t, while reported Kochi stocks remained stable at 35 t. The reduction in incoming supply, alongside higher spot prices, supports the current market firmness. However, the available data do not establish whether the decline in arrivals will persist.
Outlook
Black pepper prices are likely to maintain a stable-to-firm bias in the near term if arrivals remain subdued and buying interest holds. December futures have shown stronger momentum than spot prices, but reduced October open interest and zero December open interest warrant caution when interpreting market sentiment. Subsequent arrivals and demand trends will determine the sustainability of the price gains.
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