India: BigMint’s iron ore fines export index stable w-o-w amid weak market dynamics

• Export trades muted
• Sellers waiting for better prices

The seaborne iron ore export market remained under pressure this week as weak market sentiment and lower buying interest limited trading activity. A significant bid-offer disparity weighed on trade volumes, with exporters holding back sales in anticipation of better prices. Meanwhile, buyers remained cautious, seeking cheaper material to secure better import margins.

BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index remained stable w-o-w at $62/t FOB east coast, India, on 20 March 2025. Export deals remained absent in the east coast following weak market sentiments and lack of buying interest.

A trader commented: “We are seeing a lack of aggressive buying interest from Chinese mills, as they are uncertain about future steel demand. This is leading to limited export deals.”

Indian exporters have been hesitant to conclude deals at lower prices, given the higher domestic iron ore rates. A market participant informed, “Domestic prices are currently more attractive for sellers, so many are waiting for better bids before committing to exports.”

Some reports suggested that procurement teams from Chinese mills and traders are pushing for lower prices amid economic concerns. Chinese mills are in no rush to book cargoes at current levels. There is still room for prices to ease further.

Chinese spot prices stable: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China remained stable w-o-w at $102/t CFR on 19 March. Despite subdued demand, interest in Australian medium-grade fines, is rising due to cost-effectiveness. Additionally, potential weather-related disruptions in Western Australia could impact supply in the near term.

DCE iron ore futures drop slightly: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract opened at RMB 762/t ($100/t), dropping by RMB 15/t (2/t) w-o-w on 20 March.

Price indicators

• No deals were reported in this publishing window hence not considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
• BigMint received twenty (20) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and sixteen (11) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 100% weightage.

Outlook

As per BigMint’s analysis, with no clear direction from the Chinese steel market, iron ore prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term, with limited volatility.