- Trade activities slow down, caution prevails
- Lack of buying interest amid uncertainty in China
The Indian iron ore fines export market remained stable over the past week as trading activity slowed down. Market participants exhibited a cautious approach following reports of production cuts in China. Despite the conclusion of China’s Two Sessions, no significant policy boost was observed, keeping the market sentiment subdued.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index remained stable w-o-w at $62/t FOB east coast, India, on 13 March 2025. Export deals remained absent in the east coast following weak market sentiments and lack of buying interest.
Exporters received limited inquiries, with discounts remaining unchanged. Many traders and exporters adopted a “wait-and-watch” stance, anticipating better price levels before committing to fresh deals.
A market participant commented, “There is no aggressive buying from Chinese mills at the moment. They are uncertain about demand amid the production cut news.”
Meanwhile, some exporters were seen restocking material at Indian ports in expectation of future deals. However, the market is yet to gain momentum.
An official with an export company informed, “We are stocking up cautiously, but the market direction is still unclear.”
With China being the key buyer of Indian iron ore fines, market participants are closely monitoring steel demand and policy signals. Until there is clarity on production restrictions and stimulus measures, Indian iron ore exports are expected to remain subdued.
Chinese spot prices up w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China inched up by $2/t w-o-w to $102/t CFR on 12 March. Price remained rangebound as fresh trading activities balanced out the downward pressure from recovering Australian supplies and lower raw material costs. Despite marginal declines, market fundamentals stayed firm with mills showing interest in medium-grade fines. Additionally, supply concerns from Q2 cyclone disruptions and macroeconomic uncertainties, including US tariffs, kept prices from significant fluctuations, sustaining overall market stability.
DCE iron ore futures stable w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract opened at RMB 777/t ($103/t), remained stable w-o-w on 13 March.
Price indicators
- No deals were reported in this publishing window and not considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received nineteen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and sixteen (16) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 100% weightage.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, until there is clarity on production restrictions and stimulus measures in China, Indian iron ore exports are expected to remain subdued.
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