- Vessel freight surge $4/dmt w-o-w amid geopolitical tensions
- Exporters report less margin despite price hike
Indian iron ore export prices remained firm in the seaborne market this week, supported by a gradual uptrend in global iron ore prices and a few concluded export transactions. However, exporters continued to remain cautious as rising vessel freight and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are tightening margins.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export prices increased by $1.5/t w-o-w to $61.5/t FOB east coast on 12 March 2026. Around 250,000 tonnes of iron ore export deals were concluded during the current publishing window.
Market participants noted that demand from Chinese mills was limited but international traders were putting their inquiries for the Indian fines.
Market scenario
While trading activity showed some movement, price negotiations between buyers and sellers remained challenging due to widening freight costs and lower buyer bids.
Sources in the market indicated that FOB prices remained comparatively stable, whereas CNF prices increased by around $5-6/t w-o-w, primarily driven by higher freight rates. Buyers were reported to be seeking 19-20% discounts for miner cargo, while traders’ blended cargo for 57% Fe fines was quoted at a steeper discount of 21-22%.
An exporter stated, “We are expecting export deals around $65/t FOB, but current bids from buyers are still lower than our expectation. The costing is not aligning with the bids due to the sharp increase in vessel freight.”
Freight costs have emerged as a key factor influencing the market. According to market participants, vessel freight rates for the India-China route from the east coast have increased by $4/dmt this week, significantly impacting exporters’ margins.
A international trader commented, “The surge in freight rates is largely linked to the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed global crude oil prices higher. As fuel prices rise, shipping costs are also moving upward.”
Chinese mills are also showing cautious procurement behavior. Some Chinese mills are currently focusing on cost optimization strategies amid elevated freight levels.
Another international trader noted, “ With higher freight costs, several mills are evaluating alternatives and are increasingly procuring concentrates from port-side inventories rather than committing to fresh seaborne cargo.”
Meanwhile, Indian miners are currently less aggressive in the export market. Market participants indicated that several miners have already utilised their Environmental Clearance (EC) production limits for the financial year, reducing immediate export availability.
Domestic vs export market
Domestic prices exceeded export realisations by around INR 550/t ($6/t), with the gap being largely stable w-o-w. Iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices in Odisha were recorded at INR 3,950/t ($43/t) ex-mines, stable w-o-w on 12 March. Meanwhile, the ex-mines realisation in exports from the Barbil region was recorded at INR 3,400/t ($37/t) ex-mines.
Chinese iron ore fines prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index increased by $4/dmt w-o-w to $105/dmt CFR China on 11 March. Higher inventories of mainstream fines at Chinese ports hurt portside prices. Mills remained cautious in procurement amid narrow margins, while elevated port stocks are likely to cap further price gains in the near term.
DCE iron ore futures price up: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2026 contract closed at RMB 793/t ($111/t) on 12 March, up RMB 31.5/t ($4/t) w-o-w.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window and taken under calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received seventeen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given rest 50% weightage.
Outlook
Iron ore export prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term amid uncertain freight dynamics, geopolitical developments, and ongoing price negotiations. However, market participants believe that some deals currently under negotiation may conclude soon, provided prices become viable for exporters and freight levels stabilize.
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