- Trade subdued amid lack of inquiries, cautious buying
- Focus shifts to domestic market amid renewal of ECs
Indian iron ore fines export prices remained range-bound w-o-w, weighed down by weak global macroeconomic sentiments and renewed tariff tensions between the US and China. Market participants pointed to muted buying interest, with discounts on Indian iron ore fines widening to 23-25% on global indexed prices.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched up by $1/tonne (t) w-o-w to $60/t FOB east coast, India, on 17 April 2025. Trade activity in the Indian Ocean remained subdued amid a lack of inquiries, while exporters were not ready to sell at current prices. Export deals for around 75,000 t were recorded in this publishing window.
A market participant informed BigMint, “Exporters are cautious and waiting for optimistic signals in the market. Some traders have already shifted focus to domestic trading, which is gaining momentum with the renewal of environmental clearances (ECs) for FY’26 for producers located on the eastern coast.”
The Indian export market also faced pressure as buyers sought cheaper alternatives, finding the current floated prices unviable. An exporter commented, “We are holding off on export trades and hoping for a revival, but we do not see any positive changes coming soon amid the ongoing US-China tariff war.”
Amid global economic tensions, China could face 245% tariffs on its goods following US retaliation. The White House announced these tariffs after China’s response in the ongoing trade war, escalating tensions between the two countries.
Meanwhile, Chinese mills cautiously procured cargoes at spot ports, seeking better import margins and cost efficiency. However, some mills, having already stocked up, avoided large-volume trades.
As global uncertainty continues, Indian exporters are closely watching market developments while re-evaluating their strategies to manage risks and maintain competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.
Chinese spot prices rise: Benchmark iron ore fines in China increased by $3/t w-o-w to $99/t CFR on 16 April. Macroeconomic uncertainty and strong supply kept mills cautious, with their focus more on cost-effectiveness than volume.
DCE iron ore futures up: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract increased by RMB 18/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 707/t ($96/t) on 17 April.
Rationale
- One (1) deal for Fe 57% was reported during this publishing window, but this category was not considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-two (22) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports dropped by 3.3 million tonnes (mnt) w-o-w to 134.6 mnt on 17 April, according to data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore fines export prices will likely fluctuate amid the current global trade tensions and volatile demand.
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