- Chinese exporters stay away amid National Day holidays
- Post-summer demand recovery fails to materialise in EU
BigMint’s Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC, S275) export index for Europe held steady w-o-w at $545/tonne (t) FOB main port, with trading activity subdued and no significant discussions underway, likely due to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
The India HRC (SAE 1006) export index for the Middle East and Vietnam remained stable w-o-w. Notably, “Middle East customers are likely to maintain minimal inventory levels as they near the close of their financial year (FY) in December,” as per a source.
1. Indian HRC offers to EU hold firm w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU remained unchanged w-o-w at $595-600/t CFR Antwerp ($545-550/t FOB India), as trading activity stayed muted amid concerns over possible new trade measures and tax increases.
The European market for domestic HRCs remained largely stable in terms of prices and saw only moderate trading. Market participants were primarily focused on anticipated changes to import regulations, which are slated for release early next week. The hoped-for post-summer holiday recovery failed to materialise, as demand from key consumer sectors was weaker than anticipated.
2. Indian HRC offers to Middle East stay flat w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained flat w-o-w at $520/t CFR UAE. “The export market is facing challenges, while the Middle East domestic segment remains stable, resulting in an overall neutral outlook,” said a source.
China’s HRC export offers to the Middle East are on hold due to the ongoing National Day holidays in China (effective from 1-8 October). The last heard offers were at around $505-510/t CFR UAE.
3. Indian HRC offers to Vietnam remain range-bound w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to Vietnam remained range-bound w-o-w, hovering at around $505-510/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). The import market in Vietnam remained sluggish with slow trading activity, and as a result, no fresh confirmed transactions were heard. This stagnation is attributed to a significant gap between exporters’ offers and the lower bids being made by Vietnamese buyers.
Vietnamese steel major Hoa Phat Group kept its HRC (SAE1006, non-skin-passed) prices stable m-o-m for November sales after increasing tags in the previous month. Prices for November are at approximately $528/t or VND 13,943,756/t for the southern region, excluding VAT.
Outlook
India’s HRC export outlook remains challenging. Demand is subdued in Europe due to the CBAM and other trade measures. Additionally, Middle East buyers are cautious before year-end, keeping minimal inventory. China’s post-holiday sentiment may shift regional dynamics. The overall outlook is neutral, awaiting clearer trade and demand signals.
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