India: BigMint’s HRC export index falls w-o-w on slow demand

• Indian HRC export offers to EU drop w-o-w
• HRC offers from India to ME remain flat

BigMint’s Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC, S275) export index for Europe fell by $5/t w-o-w to $540/tonne (t) FOB main port. Notably, an unconfirmed deal was heard concluded for November shipments at slightly lower levels. The Indian HRC (SAE 1006) export index for the Middle East and Vietnam remained steady w-o-w. This stability in prices is attributed to slow demand in both the regions.

1.HRC offers to EU drop w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU dropped by $5/t w-o-w, with offers hovering around $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB India). Meanwhile, an unconfirmed deal of around 40,000 t was heard concluded at $575/t CFR Antwerp for November shipments. Moreover, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and new trade measures have created uncertainty, limiting new imports or pushing import prices closer to European mills levels, which is anticipated to drive domestic HRC prices upwards.

The European HRC market remains uncertain, with both buyers and sellers assessing price trends. Market participants are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach, delaying future bookings as they closely monitor the implementation details of the CBAM and EU safeguard measures. Although European HRC buyers have begun to accept some price hikes, the overall momentum is weaker than mills desire. However, producers are pushing for higher prices for first-quarter volumes, but buyers are skeptical about sustainability of these increases amid weak demand.

2.HRC offers to Middle East stay flat w-o-w: China’s HRC export offers to Middle East dropped by $5/t w-o-w to $495/t CFR UAE as compared to $500/t CFR UAE last week. Despite this downtrend in prices weak demand still persists. As per sources, “The decline in steel demand globally has negatively impacted overall demand”. No fresh offers were heard from Indian mills; the last heard offers were around $520/t CFR UAE.

Outlook

The short-term outlook for Indian HRC exports is slightly bearish across key markets. Export offers to the EU have dropped w-o-w and buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach due to uncertainty surrounding the CBAM and EU safeguard measures. Moreover, market participants are awaiting Indian mills’ price announcements.