India: BigMint’s coking coal index drops further in recent deal, driven by global cues

• Continuous price decline leads to buyer caution
• Market watches out for impact of Cyclone Alfred

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $200/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 28 February 2025 against $203/t CNF on 15 February. Notably, the index has been trending down since the beginning of CY’25.

Buyers exercised extreme caution amid the steady price decline. The market remains in a state of uncertainty, highlighted a source from a western India-based steel mill.

Indicative prices were at around $201/t CFR east coast India, and the market remains watchful for the impact of Cyclone Alfred in Australia, stated sources from an eastern India-based mill.

Rationale:

BigMint’s coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids. One deal of 30,000 t of PHCC was concluded at $198/t CFR India last week. This deal was given 50% weightage.

Eight (8) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Out of this, six (6) were considered for price calculation and given 50% weightage.

Factors impacting coking coal import prices

Australian coking coal prices drop: Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) was assessed at $187/t FOB, falling by $3/t w-o-w. Lower bids and speculation regarding steel production cuts in China resulted in thin trading activity, which weighed on prices.

Indian domestic met coke offers rise w-o-w, trades yet to gain momentum: India’s domestic met coke prices increased this week. As per BigMint’s assessment, 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade coke prices stood at INR 34,500/t exw-Jajpur, while Gandhidham’s tags were recorded at INR 32,000/t exw, up by INR 800/t w-o-w. The absence of active import bookings and lower inventories of imported met coke at Indian ports led to higher domestic offers.

China announces 10th straight round of met coke price cuts: On 25 February, major Chinese steelmakers decided to cut coke purchase prices by RMB 50-55/t, intensifying market pressure. This marks the tenth consecutive price reduction since late October, with a total decline of RMB 500-550/t, reflecting sustained weakness in market sentiment.