India: BF-route rebar slips further due to seasonal impact, elevated inventories

India’s blast furnace (BF)-route rebar market remained under pressure during the assessment week ended 10 July 2026, with distributor-to-dealer trade prices declining by INR 500/t week on week to INR 49,000/t ($513/t) ex-Mumbai, according to BigMint’s assessments. The decline dragged prices to their lowest level in more than six months as subdued construction activity, elevated inventories across the distribution network and competitive pricing from induction furnace (IF)-route producers continued to weigh on market sentiment.

workable project prices were heard at INR 47,000-49,000/t delivered, with primary mills offering competitive rates to secure fresh contracts amid limited demand and intensifying competition.

Market participants reported sluggish trading activity during the week, with distributors holding inventories equivalent to 35-40 days of sales compared with around 20 days a week earlier. Buyers continued to procure material only against immediate project requirements as monsoon-related disruptions slowed construction activity and delayed project execution across key consuming regions.

The higher inventory levels prompted distributors to lower offers to stimulate sales and improve stock rotation. Market participants indicated that fresh enquiries remained limited, with most customers adopting a wait-and-watch approach in anticipation of further price corrections.

IF-route rebar prices declined across all major regions this week, as the onset of the monsoon dampened both construction activity and overall trading activity. Buyers remained reluctant to procure material at higher price levels amid weak demand, prompting mills and traders to offer discounts to stimulate sales. Mill inventory levels were maintained at around 10-15 days, while order booking visibility remained limited to approximately 3-5 days. With monsoon activity expected to intensify across key consuming regions, rebar prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term. In Mumbai, IF-route rebar trade prices fell by INR 1,400/t ($14/t) w-o-w to INR 42,600/t ($455/t) ex-works as of 10 July.

Meanwhile, the BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai narrowed further w-o-w to INR 6,400/t ($67). IF rebar continue to hold a dominant share in the Indian long steel market.

Prices of key steelmaking raw materials displayed mixed trends during the week. BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index declined by INR 50/t w- o- w to INR 4,900/t ($51/t) ex-mines as of 4 July, while premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices increased by $4/t over the same period.

The mixed cost environment kept integrated steelmakers’ production costs broadly stable and failed to provide sufficient support for any meaningful recovery in BF-route rebar prices.

India awarded around 25-30 major infrastructure projects worth more than INR 60,000 crore during July, led primarily by roads and highways.

However, market participants noted that the immediate impact on rebar consumption is likely to remain limited, as monsoon conditions continue to slow construction activity and delay project mobilisation.

BigMint expects BF-route rebar prices to remain under pressure next week as monsoon-related disruptions continue to weigh on construction activity and distributors focus on reducing elevated inventories. Although the recent infrastructure awards provide supportive medium-term demand fundamentals, any meaningful price recovery is likely to depend on stronger post-monsoon construction activity, improved order bookings and a reduction in inventory levels.