- Maintenance shutdowns tighten supplies, lifting BF-route rebar prices
- Project demand and stock replenishment support market sentiment
Trade-level BF-route rebar prices (distributor-to-dealer) increased by INR 2,200/t ($23/t) w-o-w to INR 50,900/t ($532/t) ex-Mumbai, according to BigMint’s assessment on 31 July. Trading activity improved during the week as buyers resumed procurement amid strengthening market sentiment.
Sentiment remained firm as scheduled maintenance at major integrated steel plants tightened spot availability, resulting in lower distributor inventories. Supply-side constraints supported higher rebar prices, while buyers actively replenished stocks in anticipation of further price hikes.
Project rebar prices were reported in the range of INR 49,000-52,000/t ($513-544/t) landed. Demand improved, supported by increased procurement from project customers and higher booking activity. Buying interest strengthened on expectation of stable-to-firm prices and a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Factors driving the market
1. IF-route rebar market mixed trend.
IF-route rebar prices displayed a mixed trend across major regions during the week, while overall trading activity remained limited. Price sentiment remained supported by higher offers from primary steel producers, enabling secondary mills to maintain firm quotations despite moderate buying interest.
Region-wise, the southern market witnessed relatively better bookings, supported by improved ground-level demand and higher sponge iron prices, which increased production costs. In the western region, rebar prices strengthened; however, buying activity remained subdued due to persistent monsoon rains disrupting construction activity. Meanwhile, procurement across the northern, eastern and central regions continued to be largely need-based, with transactions driven by immediate requirements.
The BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai widened w-o-w to INR 6,900/t ($72/t), driven by a stronger recovery in BF-route prices. IF-route rebar continued to dominate the market with a 65-70% share of total consumption.
2. Raw material prices show mixed movements
Key BF-route raw materials recorded mixed price trends during the week. BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index increased by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 4,950/t ($53/t) ex-mines as of 25 July supported by steady trading activity and stable demand from steelmakers. In contrast, BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) assessment declined by $2/t w-o-w to $241/t CNF Paradip, reflecting softer sentiment in the seaborne coking coal market.
Update on projects
Infrastructure project awarding activity remained robust during the week, with major projects worth over INR 69,600 crore announced across India. Central India accounted for the largest share, with projects worth approximately INR 31,300 crore across the mining, steel, power and irrigation sectors in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Western India followed with investments exceeding INR 15,400 crore, led by expressway and housing redevelopment projects in Maharashtra, while north India recorded projects worth over INR 12,600 crore across highways, water infrastructure and urban development.
Outlook
The near-term outlook for the BF-route rebar market remains firm. Scheduled maintenance at major integrated steel plants is expected to keep spot supplies constrained, while lower distributor inventories should continue to support prices. Improving project execution and ongoing inventory replenishment are likely to sustain buying interest in the coming weeks.
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