- Indonesia dominates utility, trader procurement
- US coal remains concentrated among cement sector buyers
India’s thermal coal import volumes appear to be stabilising in August 2026, with vessel data showing 11.32 million tonnes (mnt) of non-coking coal already landed or visible in the shipping programme through 24 August, close to July’s full-month imports of around 11.8 mnt.
Of the August volume, 8.35 mnt had already arrived through 23 August, while another 2.97 mnt was at anchorage, berth or expected, providing an early indication of where the month could finish.
The data do not yet point to a broad import surge. Instead, they show a market increasingly shaped by origin-specific economics and individual consumer requirements.
Indonesia remains dominant supply source
Indonesia accounts for 6.93 mnt, or about 61%, of the identifiable August thermal coal programme.
The largest Indonesian buyers are Adani Power at around 1.67 mnt, Adani Enterprises at 1.31 mnt and Tata Power at 0.78 mnt, followed by Agarwal Coal at around 0.67 mnt.
The structure shows that Indonesian coal remains deeply embedded in both the utility and merchant markets.
Large Capesize cargoes are repeatedly arriving for Adani Power and Tata Power through western ports such as Mundra, while southern utilities are also significant buyers. IL&FS Tamil Nadu Power, for example, receives repeated Indonesian cargoes through Karaikal, while Moxie Power and Sembcorp take Indonesian coal through southern ports.
Russian coal targets large industrial consumers
Russia is the second-largest origin at around 1.7 mnt. Its buyer profile differs significantly from Indonesia.
JSW Steel is the largest Russian thermal coal receiver at around 0.47 mnt, followed by Tata Power, Hindustan Zinc, and Nayara Energy at roughly 0.16-0.17 mnt each. Tata Steel and JSW Energy are also notable buyers.
The data show Russian cargoes arriving from both Pacific ports such as Vanino and Atlantic/Baltic routes including Ust-Luga and Murmansk. Examples include Russian coal for JSW Energy at Jaigarh, Tata Steel at Paradip and Hindustan Zinc at Mundra.
South African coal serves a more diversified market
South African supply totals about 1.17 mnt, with Reliance Industries the largest identifiable buyer at around 0.3 mnt.
Other receivers include Adani Power, Rungta Mines, Suryadev Alloys & Power, Balaji Malt, JSW Steel and Adani Enterprises. The additional August lineup also contains South African cargoes for Suryadev at Ennore and Adani-linked buyers at Ennore and Dhamra.
This suggests Richards Bay coal is functioning as a flexible fuel across power and industrial applications rather than being dependent on one consuming sector.
US coal remains primarily an industrial fuel
The 0.9 mnt US thermal coal pipeline has a notably different buyer profile.
UltraTech Cement leads with approximately 0.26 mnt, followed by Chettinad Cement at around 0.14 Mnt. Shree Cement, Aditya Birla, Ramco Cement, JSW Steel and Nirma are also visible receivers.
US coal cargoes for UltraTech are arriving through Kandla, while Chettinad and Ramco are receiving US material through southern East Coast ports.
This reinforces the role of high-CV US thermal coal as an industrial and cement-sector fuel, where buyers evaluate it against petcoke and other high-energy alternatives rather than simply against domestic power coal.
August signals stabilisation, not yet restocking
The August vessel programme is important because Indian non-coking coal imports had declined materially during the first seven months of 2026.
The visible 11.32 mnt pipeline is already close to July’s full-month level, suggesting the downward momentum is easing. But the receiver data show that this should not yet be described as a nationwide utility restocking cycle.
Instead, August demand is being driven by several distinct markets:
The August shipping data suggest India’s thermal coal market is moving from contraction towards stabilisation, but the recovery is highly selective.
Indonesia remains the backbone of utility and merchant imports, particularly into western and southern India. US coal is being drawn primarily into cement and industrial applications, while Russian and South African coal serve a broader mix of power and industrial consumers.
This distinction matters because India’s future import requirement will not be driven by one national coal balance alone.
For utilities, the key issue is whether domestic coal can reach western and southern plants competitively and in sufficient quantities. For cement and other industries, the decision is increasingly based on the relative delivered economics of domestic coal, imported thermal coal, and petcoke.
August therefore does not yet signal a broad return to import dependence.
But with the visible programme already near July’s full-month level and substantial cargoes still arriving, the data provide the clearest indication so far that India’s thermal coal import decline may be approaching a floor.
If September vessel nominations strengthen further — particularly from Indonesia into western and southern utilities — that would provide much stronger evidence that a new thermal coal procurement cycle is beginning.
Leave a Reply