- NALCO aluminium prices show strong upward trend
- European aluminium premiums surge on disruptions
Domestic aluminium prices in India increased w-o-w as of 14 May’26, supported by stronger trends on the London Metal Exchange (LME), firm MCX aluminium futures, and improved producer pricing sentiment.
As per market assessments, P1020 ingot prices in Delhi NCR rose by INR 15,500/t, or 4.1%, w-o-w to INR 390,500/t on 14 May. Similarly, Mumbai prices increased by INR 14,000/t, or 4.3%, w-o-w to INR 390,000/t during the same period.
How did Indian and global exchanges perform?
Domestic aluminium futures on the MCX increased w-o-w by INR 13,550/t, or 3.7%, to INR 382,630/t on 14 May’26, reflecting improved domestic momentum amid firm global aluminium trends despite intra-week volatility.
In the global market, three-month aluminium prices on the LME increased by $134/t, or 3.8%, w-o-w to $3,657/t on 14 May.
The rally was supported by LME cash offers climbing near a four-year high to around $3,729.5/t, continued inventory drawdowns across LME warehouses, rising cancelled warrants, and ongoing supply concerns linked to Middle East disruptions and tighter spot availability, while rising European physical premiums further highlighted stress in the global aluminium market.
Market updates
A major primary producer reported that domestic P1020 aluminium premiums remained firm at $310-330/t, supported by the sharp rebound in global benchmark prices and continued tightness in near-term supply conditions. Market participants indicated that buying activity has turned more cautious at elevated price levels; however, the strong recovery in LME prices and declining exchange inventories continue to lend support to domestic offers. While material availability remains stable, higher replacement costs have started influencing market sentiment and pricing decisions.
Reflecting the recent market trend, NALCO’s primary aluminium ingot (P1020, 99.7%) price increased by INR 18,800/t, or around 4.8%, from INR 390,000/t on 1 May to INR 408,800/t on 14 May, indicating continued firmness in domestic producer pricing amid stronger global aluminium trends.
Meanwhile, BALCO reported a marginal 0.3% w-o-w increase, with average prices rising to INR 413,917/t from INR 412,792/t, while Hindalco recorded a 1.1% uptick to INR 411,625/t from INR 407,167/t.
European P1020 premiums surge
European P1020 aluminium premiums continued to surge amid tightening regional supply and ongoing Middle East disruptions. The duty-paid premium for primary aluminium in Europe rose to around $599/t, up nearly 67% since late February, while Rotterdam extrusion billet premiums climbed to about $1,152.5/t from nearly $530/t before the conflict, reflecting severe tightness in spot availability and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply concerns have also intensified focus on Europe’s domestic production capacity, with Rio Tinto-backed Arctial’s planned Finland smelter targeting annual production of around 610,000 t/year, potentially increasing Europe’s aluminium output by nearly 20% once operational.
Outlook
Domestic aluminium prices are expected to remain firm with a positive bias, supported by tight global inventories, elevated premiums, and supply concerns, while gains may be limited by cautious buying and intermittent profit-taking. Overall, prices are likely to stay range-bound but volatile, tracking global cues and inventory movements.
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