- Domestic aluminium prices rise marginally amid subdued demand
- MCX and LME aluminium prices recover w-o-w on supply concerns
Domestic aluminium prices in India increased marginally w-o-w, while MCX and LME aluminium prices recovered after the previous week’s correction. Tight global availability and continued supply concerns supported benchmark prices. However, subdued downstream demand and cautious buying limited gains in the domestic market.
According to BigMint’s assessment, P1020 aluminium ingot prices in Delhi NCR increased by INR 1,000/t (0.3%) w-o-w to INR 357,000/t on 18 September, from INR 356,000/t on 11 September.
How did Indian and global exchanges perform?
Domestic aluminium futures on the MCX increased by INR 4,700/t (1.3%) w-o-w to INR 354,000/t on 18 September, from INR 349,300/t a week earlier. The gain reflected renewed support from global supply concerns and tighter physical availability.
Meanwhile, three-month aluminium prices on the LME rose by $35/t (1.1%) w-o-w to $3,285/t on 17 September, from $3,250/t on 11 September. Prices recovered after the previous week’s correction.
LME aluminium inventories declined by 1,500 t, or 0.6%, to 242,600 t on 17 September, from 244,100 t on 11 September. The continued drawdown kept exchange availability relatively tight and provided underlying support to prices.
Market updates
The domestic aluminium market remained cautious, although downstream demand showed some improvement. India’s passenger vehicle sales rose 23% y-o-y during Jan-Aug’26, indicating stronger automotive demand. Imported aluminium scrap prices remained firm amid tight availability. India’s domestic aluminium premium remained broadly stable at around $290-300/t during the week.
On the trade front, market participants continued assessing the impact of revised PSIC requirements. Limited approved PSIA agencies in some non-Safe Countries could delay shipment clearances. Meanwhile, the EU dropped its proposed 15% aluminium scrap export duty. The move provides near-term relief for Indian buyers. However, planned environmental restrictions under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation could tighten future access to European scrap and affect global trade flows.
Meanwhile, global trade flows faced renewed uncertainty. The US increased tariffs on some Canadian aluminium products to as high as 100%, putting further pressure on Canadian exporters and potentially encouraging changes in regional trade flows.
Outlook
Domestic aluminium prices are expected to remain range-bound to firm in the near term. Lower LME inventories, tight global availability and renewed support from recovering international prices could underpin the market.
Improving automotive demand and firm imported scrap prices may provide additional support to domestic prices. However, cautious buying, subdued broader downstream demand and high Chinese aluminium production could limit further gains.
Overall, prices are likely to remain supported by supply-side constraints, while demand remains a key factor limiting the upside.
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