Global rice output steady in 2025/26 as trade softens; India stocks rise

• Global rice output holds steady as trade softens in 2025/26
• Export quotes slide on weak demand; India bolsters stocks

Global rice production for 2025/26 stays virtually unchanged at 541.28 million tonnes (milled basis equivalent), as gains in Cuba and Kazakhstan offset a smaller Honduran crop. Total supplies dip marginally to 732.50 million tonnes from 732.59 million tonnes last month, per the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)) report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)).

Trade volumes contract

World trade falls, driven by reduced shipments from Thailand, Cambodia, and the United States. Since February, export parboiled quotes eased across majors except Uruguay: U.S. at $534/tonne (down $16) on slack sales to traditional markets; India at $346/tonne (down $2) amid softer Sub-Saharan Africa demand; Vietnam at $352/tonne (down $7) as spring harvest ramps up against Philippine buying; Pakistan at $353/tonne (down $13) from weaker Southeast Asia calls; and Thailand at $383/tonne (down $17) hit by baht depreciation.

Consumption dips, stocks build

Consumption drops to 540.96 million tonnes from 541.7 million tonnes, led by cuts in Cameroon and Guinea. Ending stocks rise to 191.54 million tonnes from 190.88 million tonnes, buoyed by India, Bangladesh, and Thailand—though not fully offsetting other draws.

India anchors stability

India’s output holds at 152.0 million tonnes, with consumption steady at 127.0 million tonnes. Exports now pegged at 24 million tonnes (down from 25 million), lifting year-end stocks to 49 million tonnes from 48 million. This signals tighter global availability despite production poise.