- April deficit erases oversupply accumulated in first quarter
- Indonesian ore supply constraints begin impacting refined nickel output
SteelDaily: The global refined nickel market shifted into a supply deficit in April 2026, marking a reversal from the surplus conditions seen earlier in the year as production growth slowed and demand outpaced supply.
According to the latest data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global refined nickel production stood at 283,600 tonnes (t) in April, while consumption reached 294,400 t. As a result, the market recorded a supply deficit of 10,800 t during the month.
The April deficit significantly reduced the cumulative oversupply accumulated during the first quarter. During January-April 2026, global refined nickel production totalled 1.155 million tonnes (mnt), while consumption reached 1.1515 mnt, leaving a surplus of only 3,500 t.
This represents a sharp contraction from the cumulative surplus of 20,300 t reported during January-March, indicating that a substantial portion of the market surplus was absorbed within a single month as demand strengthened and supply growth moderated.
Supply constraints emerge
The tightening market balance is being increasingly linked to developments in Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer. Market participants noted that delays in mining work plan approvals (RKAB) and tighter domestic ore availability have begun to affect nickel feedstock supply, limiting refined nickel production growth.
In the upstream segment, global nickel ore production reached 342,700 t in April, while cumulative output during January-April stood at 1.320 mnt.
Although ore production remained relatively stable, restrictions in ore availability and regulatory delays have contributed to concerns over raw material supply adequacy for nickel smelters, particularly across Indonesia’s processing sector.
Demand outpaces supply growth
On the demand side, consumption improved during April, supported primarily by the stainless steel sector. Market participants attributed stronger nickel demand to improved stainless steel production economics and procurement activity following recent price movements.
The combination of stronger consumption and constrained supply growth resulted in the market’s first meaningful deficit of the year, tightening the overall balance and reducing excess inventories accumulated earlier in 2026.
Market implications
The April deficit suggests that the global nickel market may be entering a period of tighter fundamentals than previously anticipated. While the market remains marginally oversupplied on a cumulative basis, the rapid reduction in surplus indicates increasing sensitivity to supply disruptions, particularly from Indonesia.
For stainless steel producers and nickel consumers, sustained ore supply constraints could support nickel prices and increase raw material procurement costs. At the same time, any recovery in refined nickel output or moderation in stainless steel demand could quickly restore surplus conditions.
Outlook
Market participants will closely monitor Indonesian ore availability, RKAB approval progress, and stainless steel production trends during the third quarter. While the January-April balance remains marginally positive, April’s deficit highlights the possibility of further tightening if supply constraints persist and downstream nickel demand remains resilient.
Note: This article is published as part of a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.
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