- Primary and secondary copper output continue rising
- Chile’s refined production weakens amid maintenance
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported preliminary data for January-September 2025, showing that global refined copper production grew by around 4.3% y-o-y, supported by a 4% rise in primary production (from ores via electrolytic and electrowinning processes) and a 5.5% increase in secondary production (from scrap).
Regional trends in refined copper production
The growth in global refined copper production during the first nine months of 2025 was largely supported by China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which together accounted for about 57% of global output and recorded a combined increase of 9.4% (China +9.6%, DRC +8.2%). Excluding these two countries, world refined copper production fell by around 1.6%.
In Asia (excluding China), refined copper output is assessed to have declined by 3.9% driven primarily by reduced production in Japan and the Philippines. Japan’s output dropped by 7% due to maintenance shutdowns, while the Philippines saw a steep 68% fall following the closure of the Pasar refinery. In Indonesia, the Amman and Manyar smelter/refinery facilities began operations in March and July respectively, though overall production has been affected by operational challenges at Amman and the Grasberg mine incident.
India, meanwhile, posted a 22% increase in refined copper output supported by improved operating capacity rates and the ramp-up of the Adani refinery.
Chilean refined copper production declined by 10%, with electrolytic output from concentrates dropping 14% due to smelter maintenance, and electrowinning (SX-EW) production decreasing by 8%.
Global secondary refined copper production (from scrap) grew by 5.5%, with the increase mainly driven by higher output in China.
Copper mine output up
Preliminary data indicates that global copper mine production increased by around 2% in the first nine months of 2025, with concentrate output up 1.5% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) rising 3.5%. The overall increase was supported by ramp-ups at new projects and improved performance at several operating mines, although lower ore grades and incidents at key sites — including Kamoa in May and Grasberg in September — limited stronger growth.
Chile’s copper mine output remained broadly unchanged. Higher production at Escondida, Centinela, Mantos Copper and Codelco was offset by declines at Collahuasi, Los Pelambres and Quebrada Blanca.
In Peru, mine production increased by 2.8%, driven by gains at Las Bambas, Toromocho and Quellaveco, which more than compensated for reduced output at Cerro Verde, Antamina and Antapaccay.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) recorded an estimated 8% increase in mine production, supported by expansions at Kamoa (pre-incident), Tenke/Kisanfu and several smaller operations. Kamoa’s output rose 31% in the first half but dropped 39% in Q3 following a seismic incident.
Mongolia’s copper concentrate production surged by 37% on the back of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project ramp-up.
Meanwhile, Indonesian mine output declined by 35%, reflecting lower production at Batu Hijau due to mine sequencing, significantly reduced output at Grasberg owing to a major maintenance programme earlier in the year, and the suspension of mining activities after a severe mud rush incident on 8 September.
Refined copper usage grows
Preliminary data indicates that global apparent refined copper usage increased by around 5.5% in the first nine months of 2025.
China’s apparent refined copper demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have grown by roughly 8.5%. Despite this rise in demand, China’s net refined copper imports declined by 1%, as refined imports increased by 2% while exports rose by 17%. China continues to account for about 58% of total world refined copper usage.
Refined copper consumption outside China grew by approximately 1.6%, supported by demand improvement in several Asian and MENA markets, which helped offset softer consumption trends in the EU and Japan.
Market surplus rises
Preliminary world refined copper balance shows an apparent surplus of about 94,000 t in the first nine months of 2025. Adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded inventories, the refined copper balance suggests a market surplus of around 156,000 t.
Copper prices
China’s bonded stocks are estimated to have increased by around 62,000 t compared with end-2024 levels.
Combined copper stocks at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) reached 574,953 t at end-October, up 144,725 t (+33.6%) from December 2024. Stocks declined on the LME (–137,750 t) and rose at COMEX (+240,507 t) and SHFE (+41,968 t).
The average LME cash price for October was $10,696.02/t, up 7.5% from September’s $9,952.73/t.
The 2025 high was $11,067.50/t on 29 October, and the low was $8,539/t on 9 April.
The year-to-date average stands at $9,742.80/t, 6.5% higher than the 2024 annual average.
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