- Copper mine output projected to grow 2.3%
- Scrap-based production to increase by 6.4%
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects global copper mine production to grow 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Refined copper output is expected to rise by 2.9% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, with a market surplus likely as demand growth moderates.
Drivers of production growth
Ongoing capacity expansions in China and new projects in Indonesia, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will fuel growth. In 2025, primary electrolytic refined production is set to increase by 3%, SX-EW output by 3.3%, and secondary production from scrap by 2.2%. In 2026, secondary refined production is expected to accelerate by 6.4% as new facilities ramp up.
Capacity expansions to boost copper mine output
World copper mine production is projected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 to 23.5 million tonnes (mnt), mainly driven by the ramp-up of major projects such as Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, and the commissioning of the Malmyz mine in Russia. However, these gains will be partially offset by expected declines in Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan.
Looking ahead to 2026, mine production growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.5%, supported by continued expansion in new and existing capacity, such as in China, along with anticipated output improvements in Chile and Zambia and a recovery in Indonesian production.
Refined copper consumption to grow despite headwinds
World apparent refined copper usage is projected to grow by about 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, according to the ICSG. These growth rates have been revised downward from previous forecasts, reflecting concerns over global economic uncertainty and shifting international trade policies, both of which are likely to temper copper demand in the coming years.
Asia, led by China, will remain the primary engine of global copper demand, with Chinese usage expected to rise by 2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026. While demand in the EU, Japan, and the US is expected to stay subdued, global copper usage will continue to benefit from improvements in manufacturing, ongoing energy transition initiatives, urbanisation, digitalisation, and new semiconductor production capacity in India and other countries.
However, ICSG cautions that actual market balances can differ from forecasts due to unforeseen factors. For China, demand calculations exclude unreported stock changes, which can impact balances.
ICSG forecasts market surplus
ICSG has projected a refined copper surplus of about 289,000 tonnes (t) in 2025 and 209,000 t in 2026.
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