- US, Turkiye, Pakistan crop reductions weigh on output
- Global cotton trade forecast rises by 400,000 bales
Global cotton production for 2026-27 is forecast at 117.32 million bales of 480 pounds each, down 300,000 bales from August, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Lower production forecasts for the US, Turkiye, and Pakistan more than offset higher estimates for Brazil, the African Franc Zone and Kazakhstan.
Despite the production reduction, global cotton supply increased to 192.62 million bales from 192.44 million in August, supported by higher beginning stocks of 75.31 million bales. Global consumption remained unchanged at 122.92 million bales, indicating that the increase in available supply was driven primarily by carry-in stocks rather than current-season output.
Global trade gains momentum
Global cotton trade is forecast at 44.22 million bales, up 400,000 bales from August. Higher exports from Brazil and the African Franc Zone are expected to meet stronger import demand from Turkiye, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
Brazil’s export forecast increased by 200,000 bales to 15.50 million bales, while production rose by 250,000 bales to 18.50 million bales. The upward revision reinforces Brazil’s position as a major contributor to global export availability.
China’s production, imports and consumption forecasts remained unchanged at 33.50 million bales, 7 million bales, and 42 million bales, respectively. India’s production and consumption were maintained at 24 million bales and 26.50 million bales, while imports remained at 3 million bales. India’s ending stocks increased to 10.32 million bales from 10.02 million bales.
Turkiye’s production estimate was reduced by 300,000 bales to 2.40 million bales, while imports increased by 200,000 bales to 5 million bales. Pakistan’s crop forecast fell by 100,000 bales to 5 million bales, with imports rising to 5.10 million bales. Indonesia’s consumption and imports each increased by 100,000 bales to 2.10 million bales.
US balance sheet tightens
US cotton production was lowered by 410,000 bales to 13.20 million bales following a 22-pound decline in yield to 776 pounds per harvested acre. Harvested area was also reduced marginally to 8.16 million acres.
Beginning stocks declined to 4.15 million bales, while mill use fell by 100,000 bales to 1.50 million bales. Exports remained unchanged at 12.30 million bales, bringing total supply to 17.36 million bales and ending stocks to 3.60 million bales.
The US stocks-to-use ratio fell to 26.1% from 28.8%, while the season-average upland cotton price was raised by 3 cents to 78 cents per pound. The lower production forecast and reduced carry-in stocks indicate a tighter domestic balance sheet, although unchanged export projections limit the immediate impact on external availability.
Outlook
The September WASDE report indicates a tighter US cotton balance sheet alongside stronger global trade. However, higher beginning stocks have more than offset the decline in global production, keeping total global supply above the August forecast.
Global ending stocks for 2026-27 rose to 69.86 million bales, with the stocks-to-use ratio edging up to 56.8%. This suggests that the global market remains adequately supplied despite lower production.
For 2025-26, global production is estimated at 121.95 million bales, consumption at 121.13 million bales, and ending stocks at 75.31 million bales. US exports were raised to 12.30 million bales, lowering ending stocks to 4.15 million bales and lifting the season-average farm price to 62 cents per pound.
Near-term market direction will depend on crop developments in major producing countries, export availability from Brazil and the US, and import demand from key textile-producing markets.
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