- Global mine production may rise 1.4% in CY’25, as per ICSG
- China’s refined copper output up 10% y-o-y in Jan-Aug’25
The global copper concentrate market is expected to face a shortage in 2026, driven by production cuts at key mines and fast expansion of smelter capacity, particularly in China.
Freeport Indonesia, part of US-based Freeport McMoRan, declared force majeure at its Grasberg Block Cave copper-gold mine in September following a landslide that halted operations. The incident could result in a loss of nearly 500,000 t of mined copper output across 2025-26. This will also impact two major Indonesian smelters – Gresik and Manyar – which together have a capacity of 600,000 t per year and are likely to operate below capacity in 2026.
In Canada, Teck Resources has revised down its metals production guidance through 2028, as it plans to mine lower-grade areas at major sites. The company expects to lose around 160,000 tonnes of copper output between 2025-27.
According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global mine production is forecast to rise by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, supported by ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), Malmyz (Russia), and several smaller projects in Brazil, Iran, Ecuador, and Morocco. However, this growth will not be enough to meet the rapidly expanding smelter demand.
Industry analysts estimate a possible 500,000-t global shortage of copper concentrate in 2026, as smelting capacity growth outpaces mine supply.
China remains the key driver behind this imbalance. The country’s refined copper output rose 10% year-on-year to 9.89 million tonnes during January–August 2025, and is expected to climb further by 8.5% to 14.8 mnt in 2025 as new capacity comes online.
Globally, around 2.4 mnt per year of new smelting capacity is set to launch in 2025, which will add to the pressure on concentrate supply. Smelter production is projected to grow by 1.2 mnt in 2025 and 1.4 mnt in 2026, likely keeping treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) under pressure through 2026.
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