Global bunker prices soften w-o-w as crude eases, geopolitical risks cap downside

• VLSFO and HSFO soften in line with lower crude prices
• Middle East tensions continue to support bunker sentiment

Global bunker fuel markets softened during the week ended 1 August 2026, with Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices declining in Singapore and Fujairah, while remaining stable in Rotterdam. The weakness largely mirrored the fall in crude oil prices as geopolitical risk premiums eased and concerns over immediate supply disruptions subsided. However, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East prevented a sharper correction, providing underlying support to bunker values.

High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) also weakened in Singapore and Rotterdam amid softer feedstock costs and subdued buying interest. In contrast, Fujairah remained relatively firm, supported by tighter regional supply fundamentals and its strategic importance as a key bunkering hub.

The Marine Gas Oil (MGO) market was mixed, with prices easing in Singapore and Fujairah alongside weaker crude, while Rotterdam advanced on stronger distillate demand and tighter regional availability. Overall, bunker sentiment remained cautiously supported despite the weekly correction, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to underpin market confidence.

Regional bunker markets

• Singapore: VLSFO prices declined w-o-w $10/tonne (t) w-o-w to $826/t. Softer crude oil prices and reduced buying interest weighed on VLSFO, MGO, and HSFO. Nevertheless, healthy vessel calls, balanced fuel availability, and steady refuelling demand helped cushion the decline.
• Rotterdam: VLSFO was unchanged at $681/t, w-o-w. While MGO strengthened on firmer distillate fundamentals, HSFO softened due to comfortable fuel oil availability. Bunker demand across Northwest Europe remained broadly stable.
• Fujairah: VLSFO edged $1/t lower w-o-w to $805/t. Market sentiment remained resilient as regional supply risks and security concerns in the Middle East continued to support prices. HSFO outperformed other grades, reflecting comparatively tighter regional fundamentals.

Factors influencing bunker prices

• Brent retreats as easing geopolitical risk premiums weigh on prices: Brent crude (September 2026 contract) fell to $90.25/barrel (bbl) as of 31 July, down $7.44/bbl w-o-w from $97.69/bbl. The decline was driven by easing concerns over near-term supply disruptions, shifting market focus back to supply-demand fundamentals. However, continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and key shipping corridors kept volatility elevated
• WTI declines as easing risk premiums offset seasonal demand support: WTI crude futures settled at $84.67/bbl on 01 August, down $4.64/bbl w-o-w from $89.31/bbl. Prices weakened as expectations of improved crude supply and profit-taking outweighed support from seasonal fuel demand, although geopolitical risks continued to prevent a steeper decline.

Outlook

Global bunker fuel prices are expected to remain range-bound with a slight downside bias in the near term, as softer crude oil prices and comfortable fuel availability across major bunkering hubs weigh on sentiment. However, any escalation in Middle East tensions, disruptions along key shipping routes, or a rebound in crude oil prices could quickly revive upward pressure, keeping bunker markets volatile.