European Union route-wise crude steel production and forecast

Europe’s decarbonisation strategy is gradually changing the way scrap is consumed. Unlike blast furnaces, EAFs rely primarily on ferrous scrap, while direct reduced iron (DRI) is increasingly expected to complement metallic requirements for low-carbon steelmaking. Although EU crude steel production is projected to remain broadly stable at 130-135 mnt by 2030, the production mix is expected to shift further towards EAFs. Even without major capacity additions, replacing blast furnace production with EAF steelmaking increases domestic scrap requirements. Meanwhile, DRI consumption is expected to rise from 3.1 mnt in CY25 to around 4-5 mnt by CY30, supporting Europe’s transition towards lower-carbon steel production.