- Excess imports could face 50% tariffs after quota exhaustion
- Slabs accounted for 93.9% of Indonesia’s EU stainless steel exports
Indonesia’s growing stainless steel slab exports to Europe could reshape trade flows as the European Union’s (EU) “melt and pour” declaration system, effective 1 October, introduces new requirements for imported steel products. While the framework does not restrict the direct import of Indonesian slabs into the EU, it requires importers of covered finished products to disclose the country where the steel was initially melted and cast, even when subsequent rolling takes place in third countries such as South Korea, China, Taiwan or Turkey.
This distinction could widen the regulatory gap between slabs imported directly into the EU for domestic processing and finished stainless steel products rolled outside the bloc before shipment to European buyers.
Indonesia’s stainless steel slab supplies to Europe have expanded considerably. Last year, the country supplied approximately 330,000 tonnes (t) of stainless steel slabs to Italy. In 2026, exports of slabs to Europe have already exceeded 123,000 t.
According to MySteel statistics, Indonesia exported approximately 127,900 t of stainless steel to the EU between January and July 2026, of which slabs accounted for around 120,000 t, or 93.9% of the total.
The longer-term trend is also pronounced. According to market analysis citing Eurostat data, EU imports of Indonesian stainless steel semi-finished products under CN 7218 reached approximately 350,000 t in 2025, around five times the volume recorded in 2024.
The shift towards slabs has coincided with EU anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Indonesian stainless steel hot-rolled and cold-rolled finished products. With slabs facing a relatively lower regulatory burden, they have emerged as an important route for Indonesian material to enter the European supply chain.
In October 2025, approximately 124,000 t of Indonesian stainless steel slabs reportedly entered the EU, alongside pre-emptive procurement ahead of the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Exports then virtually halted in the first quarter of 2026 amid inventory accumulation before shipments resumed in April.
EU melt-and-pour rules distinguish slabs from finished products
The EU’s “melt and pour” declaration system, effective 1 October, highlights a key distinction in the treatment of stainless steel slabs and finished products.
Under EU steel regulation (EU 2026/1384), importers of covered steel products must provide evidence of the country where the steel was first produced in a liquid state and subsequently cast into a solid form. This is referred to as the country of melting and casting.
Verification is required through Mill Test Certificates (MTCs) and heat numbers. Imports may be refused if the required evidence is not provided, with the relevant reporting obligations taking effect on 1 October , 2026.
However, stainless steel semi-finished products, including slabs classified under CN 7218, are excluded from the list of products covered by these provisions.
The principal stainless steel categories covered by the EU framework are Item 8, stainless steel hot-rolled products, Item 9, stainless steel cold-rolled products; and Item 10, stainless steel hot-rolled thick plates. As CN 7218 is not included among the covered categories, Indonesian stainless steel slabs can enter the EU without being subject to this particular melt and pour declaration requirement.
This creates a distinction between direct slab imports and finished product imports. If European steelmakers import Indonesian slabs and roll them into stainless steel hot-rolled or cold-rolled products within the EU, the resulting goods are produced within the bloc and do not re-enter through the import quota system as imported finished products.
The situation differs when the same Indonesian slabs are shipped to South Korea, China, Taiwan or Turkey, rolled into stainless steel hot-rolled or cold-rolled products, and subsequently exported to the EU.
In this case, the products entering the EU are covered finished steel products and are therefore subject to the applicable import regulations. Their melt and pour documentation can also establish Indonesia as the country where the steel was originally melted and cast.
Consequently, the country where the final rolling takes place does not necessarily determine the country of melting and casting recorded under the new system. Steel initially melted and cast in Indonesia may still be traceable to Indonesia when processed in a third country before entering the EU. Processing within the EU, however, follows a different route because the finished products are produced within the bloc.
EU rolling mills could gain a relative advantage
The distinction could give European stainless steel rolling mills a relative advantage over producers operating outside the EU.
European companies can directly procure Indonesian slabs and process them into stainless steel hot-rolled or cold-rolled products within the bloc. By contrast, producers in non-EU countries using the same slabs must comply with the applicable EU import requirements when exporting finished products, including quota-related provisions and declarations identifying the country of melting and casting.
At present, stainless steel hot-rolled and cold-rolled products manufactured in third countries such as South Korea or Taiwan do not automatically become subject to Indonesia’s quota solely because Indonesian slabs were used in their production.
However, the EU’s planned implementation timeline could change how such products are treated. From October 2027, information on the country of melting and casting is to be taken into account when allocating national steel quotas. By June 2028, the EU is scheduled to assess whether the country of melting and casting should itself become a criterion for determining quota benefits.
These provisions could have implications for Indonesia’s stainless steel export strategy if melt and pour information becomes a direct factor in the operation of country-specific quotas.
If the country of melting and casting is eventually used as a criterion for applying quotas, stainless steel hot-rolled and cold-rolled products processed in South Korea, China, Taiwan or Turkey could be linked to Indonesia for quota purposes, even if the final rolling takes place elsewhere.
In that scenario, finished products exported directly from Indonesia and products rolled in third countries using Indonesian slabs could compete for the quota allocated to Indonesia. Once the applicable quota is exhausted, excess imports would face a 50% tariff.
By comparison, supplying slabs directly to the EU could remain relatively advantageous. Stainless steel slabs are currently excluded from the EU’s steel import quota framework, and when EU companies process these slabs into hot-rolled or cold-rolled products within the bloc, the resulting goods are not subject to import quotas as imported finished products.
Indonesia’s export strategy may shift towards slabs
The EU’s tightening regulatory framework may widen the difference between the export conditions for stainless steel slabs and finished products rather than directly restricting the overall inflow of Indonesian stainless steel.
Finished products face applicable import quotas and trade remedy measures, while slabs supplied directly to European rolling mills carry a relatively lower regulatory burden under the current framework.
Given the recent increase in Indonesian stainless steel slab exports to the EU, producers may have a stronger incentive to expand slab shipments rather than exports of finished products to the European market. This would allow Indonesian material to enter the European supply chain through local rolling mills, avoiding the same import requirements that apply when finished products are shipped from outside the bloc.
As Indonesia continues to expand its stainless steel slab production, supported by its low-cost nickel resources, the interaction between the EU’s melt and pour rules, future quota allocation and existing trade measures could influence the movement of stainless steel between Asia and Europe. The extent of this shift will depend on how the EU incorporates melt-and-pour information into its quota framework from 2027 onwards and whether the country of melting and casting becomes a direct criterion for quota allocation.
Note: This article is published as part of a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.
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