- China copper output growth slows as concentrate shortages tighten smelter supply
- Vedanta renews Niyamgiri bauxite mining push in Odisha
LME base metals traded lower on 28 September. Copper fell 1.43% d-o-d to $14,413/t, marking the sharpest decline. Lead followed with a 1.40% fall to $1,902/t. Zinc eased 1.21% to $3,853/t. Nickel slipped 0.92% to $16,179/t, while aluminium declined 0.50% to $3,252/t.
The decline likely followed the US rejection of Iran’s proposal on the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The move pushed oil prices higher and renewed inflation concerns. Meanwhile, expectations of tighter monetary policy, softer Chinese industrial growth and a stronger dollar added pressure on the LME complex.
LME inventories recorded mixed trends. Nickel stocks posted the largest increase, rising 2.17% d-o-d to 284,946 t. Copper inventories edged up 0.13% to 251,500 t. In contrast, zinc stocks fell 1.30% to 121,600 t. Lead inventories declined 0.43% to 362,525 t, while aluminium stocks remained unchanged at 241,375 t.
Domestic market overview
India’s non-ferrous scrap market witnessed mixed trends on 28 September. The aluminium market remained stable as a period of inactivity continued. Aluminium tense scrap (loose), ex-Delhi, declined by INR 1,000/t, or 0.4%, d-o-d to INR 247,000/t. Ex-Chennai prices held at INR 248,500/t, while aluminium P1020 stayed unchanged at INR 353,000/t. Meanwhile, MCX aluminium rose 0.36% d-o-d to $3,478/t.
Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, declined by INR 10,000/t, or 0.7%, d-o-d to INR 1,337,000/t. MCX copper fell 0.36% d-o-d to $14,024/t, tracking weaker international sentiment.
Other updates
Middle East tensions keep oil prices elevated
Brent rose 1.63% to $107.0/bbl on 29 September, while WTI gained 1.5% to $93.84/bbl as uncertainty over Middle East supply persisted. Although crude exports from major regional producers increased to 12.8 million b/d in September, higher-cost logistics are supporting an energy risk premium.
China refined copper output growth set for sharp slowdown
China’s refined copper output may grow only 3–3.4% in 2026. Growth reached 10.4% in 2025. The slowdown reflects prolonged concentrate shortages and tighter scrap availability. Weaker smelter economics also add pressure. Furthermore, seven Chinese smelters plan maintenance during October-November. The work could cut refined copper supply by around 80,000 t.
Vedanta renews Niyamgiri bauxite mining push in Odisha
Vedanta has renewed efforts to reopen the Niyamgiri bauxite project after around 13 years. Chairman Anil Agarwal discussed the proposal with Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi on 26 September. Niyamgiri holds an estimated 80 Mt of bauxite. A nearby captive source could reduce logistics costs and imported-feedstock exposure for Vedanta’s Lanjigarh refinery. However, regulatory and community hurdles remain.
China turns net alumina exporter in August as overseas demand strengthens
China became a net alumina exporter in August as overseas demand strengthened. The country exported 425,000 t and imported 349,500 t, resulting in 75,500 t of net exports. In January-August, imports reached 2.9 Mt, while exports rose 33% y-o-y to 2.3 Mt. Higher overseas prices reduced import demand. Meanwhile, stronger Middle East demand encouraged Chinese suppliers to ship material abroad.
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