- Trafigura’s lead delivery lifts LME stocks to 14-year high
- Chile winter storms threaten major copper mine output
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded mixed on 15 July 2026, with nickel rose 0.23% d-o-d to $16,803/t, while copper slipped 0.45% to $13,582/t, remaining above the $13,500/t mark. Aluminium declined 0.85% to $3,150/t, zinc fell 1.47% to $3,546/t, and lead eased 0.75% to $1,852/t.
Despite the correction, persistent declines in exchange inventories continued to indicate tightening physical availability, limiting downside in copper prices. Copper stocks fell 0.55% d-o-d to 303,525 t, while aluminium inventories declined 0.57% to 284,600 t. Zinc inventories dropped 0.72% to 113,450 t, and lead inventories plunged 87.19% to 37,075 t following a sharp withdrawal from exchange warehouses. Nickel inventories remained unchanged at 274,704 t.
Domestic market overview
India’s non-ferrous scrap market remained largely stable on 15 July. Aluminium tense scrap (loose), ex-Delhi, declined by INR 3,000/t to INR 265,000/t, while ex-Chennai prices remained unchanged at INR 255,000/t.
Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, increased by INR 8,000/t, or 0.66% d-o-d, to INR 1,225,000/t, supported by higher LME copper prices and continued declines in LME inventories.
Oil remains elevated on Hormuz disruption and geopolitical risks
Global crude oil prices remained firm on 16 July 2026, with Brent crude easing 1.11% d-o-d to $84.47/bbl, while WTI crude slipped 0.60% to $79.31/bbl. Natural gas declined 0.31% to $2.91/MMBtu.
Oil prices continued to trade near one-month highs as the conflict in West Asia intensified for a fourth consecutive day, keeping markets focused on supply disruptions. The disruption has curtailed exports from key Gulf producers, including Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, while threats to the Bab al-Mandab Strait have heightened concerns over broader regional supply chains.
Market participants warned that WTI could climb to $85-87/bbl if the conflict escalates further, while some forecasts suggest Brent could exceed $110/bbl in the fourth quarter if Gulf exports remain constrained. However, easing geopolitical tensions and a recovery in production could eventually push crude prices back into the $60/bbl range later this year.
Other updates
Trafigura’s record lead delivery lifts LME inventories
Commodity trader Trafigura delivered a record 80,700 t of lead into LME warehouses in Singapore, pushing total exchange inventories to 370,075 t, the highest level since 2012. The sharp inflow weighed on LME lead prices, which fell to their lowest level in more than a year, highlighting growing physical availability in the market.
The delivery is believed to be linked to warehouse rent-sharing arrangements, where traders benefit from storage income rather than immediate metal sales. The substantial increase in visible stocks comes amid expectations of a global lead surplus, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the LME lead market despite stable demand from the battery sector.
BHP copper output declines amid lower Chilean ore grades
BHP reported a 3% y-o-y decline in copper production to 1.95 mnt in FY’26, primarily due to lower ore grades at its flagship Escondida mine in Chile. Fourth-quarter copper output fell to 0.49 mnt from 0.51 mnt a year earlier, while the company expects FY’27 production to decline further to 1.65-1.80 mnt.
Despite the weaker copper performance, BHP recorded a 1% increase in iron ore production to a record 264.7 mnt and a 3% rise in steelmaking coal output to 18.6 mnt.
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