Copper prices hold near record highs amid mine shutdowns, rising LME stock

• LME copper prices up 40% y-o-y
• Glencore winds up Australian operations

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose slightly by 0.2% w-o-w, with the 3-month contract settling around $9,800/tonne (t) on 25 July 2025.

Copper prices hovered near record highs, around $5.78 per pound (approximately $9,800/t), despite a slight dip of 0.38% on 25 July. Prices have risen about 14% over the past month and are up over 40% year-on-year due to tight supply conditions and strong demand fundamentals.

As of 25 July, LME copper stocks stood at 129,100 t, up from 122,175 t on 18 July. This represents a weekly increase of 6,925 t, or approximately 5.7% w-o-w. Notably, the largest stock increases were reported in Rotterdam and Busan warehouses, with combined daily warrant inflows of nearly 5,000 t midweek, primarily of grade-A copper cathodes from Central Asia and South America, as per sources.

This continued rise follows several weeks of inventory builds. The steady accumulation suggests ongoing weak spot demand, persistent inflows into LME warehouses.

Glencore to shut Mount Isa copper mines

Glencore confirmed it will close its final two copper mines in Mount Isa, Australia, by mid-2025, citing declining ore grades and financial losses. This move also ends over 60 years of Glencore’s upstream copper operations in Australia.

In parallel, Glencore suspended production at its Katanga and Mopani mines in Zambia and the DRC for 18 months, removing an estimated 400,000 tonnes of copper cathode from global supply—about 1–2% of total global production.

Chinese smelter overcapacity squeezes global concentrate supply

China’s aggressive expansion of copper smelting capacity has triggered a global shortage of copper concentrate. As a result, spot treatment charges (TCs) have fallen sharply, turning negative to around -$60/tonne. This oversupply in smelting has created significant pressure on smelters outside China, particularly older or less efficient facilities, making operations economically unviable.

Outlook

The copper market in July has been marked by historical price records, major policy shifts (notably US tariffs), accelerating green transition demand, and unresolved supply challenges—leading to volatility but a persistent bullish outlook.