Codelco sets record $350/t European copper premium for 2027 amid supply concerns

• Codelco raises 2027 European copper premium by 7.7% to a record $350/t
• US stockpiling and mine disruptions tighten supply despite projected global surplus

Chile’s state-owned copper producer Codelco has offered European customers a record premium of $350/t for 2027 copper cathode deliveries, up from $325/t in 2026. The move follows Aurubis’ $347/t offer, a 10.2% increase from $315/t previously. These offers highlight producers’ efforts to secure higher returns amid uncertainty over physical supply. However, final contract settlements will determine how much of the increase buyers accept.

Regional supply tightness drives premiums higher

US stockpiling has redirected significant copper volumes towards the American market, reducing the metal available to consumers elsewhere. US copper stocks were estimated at 1.6 mnt in October 2026, including more than 714,000 tonnes in COMEX-approved warehouses.

Although the COMEX-LME price differential has narrowed, the accumulated inventories remain substantial. Uncertainty over potential tariffs on refined copper imports from 2027 has also encouraged stock accumulation, contributing to competition for available supplies outside the US.

Mine disruptions and limited copper concentrate availability have added to supply concerns. Operational issues at Codelco’s El Teniente mine and low or negative treatment and refining charges indicate pressure across the copper supply chain. These constraints are supporting producers’ efforts to secure higher premiums, even as the global supply outlook points towards a surplus.

Market impact and outlook

Record European premiums point to regional tightness rather than a confirmed global copper shortage. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the refined copper surplus to widen to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, as production growth outpaces demand. This outlook could limit sustained gains in LME prices, even if regional premiums remain elevated.

Codelco’s upcoming 2027 China premium announcement will provide another indication of regional supply conditions. For India, higher cathode procurement costs could improve the relative competitiveness of copper scrap. However, domestic prices will remain sensitive to LME movements, import offers and buying interest. Ultimately, the sustainability of higher premiums will depend on contract acceptance, inventory distribution and whether additional refined supply reaches markets facing tighter availability.