Chinese, Indonesian nickel pig iron output expected to rise 2% m-o-m in Aug’26

• Resumption of operations at several smelters to drive growth
• Additional nickel ore mining quotas may boost Indonesian supply

Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia is forecast to increase in August, driven by the resumption of operations at several smelting projects and expectations of improved nickel ore availability, according to Mysteel’s latest survey covering 15 smelters in China and 55 NPI smelting projects in Indonesia. Of the Indonesian projects, 95% are Chinese-invested, with a total of 264 production lines currently in operation.

This month, total NPI production in both countries is estimated to reach 170,300 t (Ni contained) for a m-o-m increase of 2%. Within this total, medium- and high-grade NPI output is projected to account for 164,200 t, up 2.1% from July’s level.

NPI output in China is expected to climb to 29,200 t (Ni contained) in August, representing a m-o-m rise of 1.3%. Medium- and high-grade NPI production is forecast at 23,100 t, up 1.4% on month, while low-grade output is seen at 6,100 t, up 1.2%.

In Indonesia, NPI production is estimated at 141,100 t of Ni content, representing a 2.2% m-o-m increase. Market sources indicate that additional nickel ore mining quotas, known as RKAB, have reportedly been granted in a key Indonesian mining area, which is expected to boost laterite nickel ore supply and provide further room for expanded NPI output.

Actual production figures for last month showed total NPI output in China and Indonesia reached around 166,900 t (Ni contained), higher by 1.6% on month, with medium- and high-grade NPI at 160,900 t, up 1.9%.

For this year’s January-July period, combined output of the ferro alloy in metal content across the two countries reached some 1.12 million tonnes (mnt), down 8.1% y-o-y.

China’s July NPI output rose 2.8% m-o-m to 28,800 t, while Indonesia’s output reached 138,100 t, making for a 1.4% increase. Despite the monthly gains, Indonesia’s cumulative output for January through July fell 10.5% year-on-year to 947,000 t in Ni content.

Note: This article is published as part of a content exchange agreement between Mysteel and BigMint.