China’s finished steel exports are expected to fall 3-8% y-o-y to 110-115 million tonnes (mnt) in CY’26 after reaching the highest level since 2015 last year, according to BigMint analysis. Exports in H1CY’26 dropped by 6% y-o-y to 54.9 mnt, driven by lower volumes to the Middle East, Central and South America, and East Asia. The decline points to mounting trade barriers, higher export costs, geopolitical disruptions, and improving steel supply outside China, all of which are gradually reducing overseas demand for Chinese steel.
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