- Chinese steel prices rise on higher raw materials prices
- Steel exports decline amid shipping disruptions
Chinese steel prices escalated in the week ended 13 March. Domestic HRC and rebar prices rose w-o-w, additionally key raw material prices such as iron ore, billet also edged up over the same period, while coking coal prices declined marginally.
China’s steel exports declined by 8.1% y-o-y to 15.59 million tonnes (mnt) in January-February 2026, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
Exports in January alone fell by 13.2% y-o-y to 7.75 mnt, while in February, shipments stood at around 7.84 mnt, slightly higher than January on a monthly basis but 2.5% lower y-o-y compared with the same period last year.
1. Iron ore spot prices increase w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% increased by $6/t w-o-w to $109/dmt CFR China on 13 March. The increase was supported by active trading in medium-grade fines and positive macroeconomic sentiment in China, along with higher oil prices. Meanwhile, concerns over purchasing high-grade Australian fines emerged among mills and traders amid stalled contractual negotiations.
a) Spot pellet premium edges down w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet declined by $0.2/t to $17.05/t CFR China on 11 Mar.
b) Spot lump premium stable w-o-w: Spot lump premium remained largely stable w-o-w at $0.1890/dmtu on 13 March.
2. Coke market stable on sufficient supplies: China’s coke market remained stable as supply-demand conditions stayed relatively loose. Coking coal supply was ample due to steady mine output, while coking plants maintained current operating rates amid weak profitability. Although steel mills may gradually resume production after recent restrictions, purchases remain largely limited to essential restocking, suggesting coke prices are likely to remain stable in the near term.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices declined by $2/t to $219/t FOB. In contrast, BigMint’s PHCC index at Paradip rose $9/t w-o-w to $249/t CNF on 6 March, rebounding after falling to a two-month low the previous week amid cautious buyer sentiment and lower bids.
3. Billet prices edge up w-o-w: Chinese billet prices rose RMB 40/t ($6/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,970/t ($431/t) on 13 March, up from RMB 2,930/t ($425/t) on 6 March, supported by gradually improving domestic demand and firm raw material costs such as iron ore and coke.
Prices moved unevenly earlier in the week as market sentiment remained mixed. However, support improved later as steel consumption picked up, with social consumption increasing by about 15%, while inventory growth slowed compared with previous weeks.
4. Domestic HRC prices increase w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC prices increased by RMB 80/t ($12/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,120/t ($452/t) on 13 March, from RMB 3,040/t ($440/t) a week ago. Moreover, SHFE HRC futures (May 2026 contract), increased by RMB 79/t ($12/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,298/t ($478/t) on 13 March, compared with RMB 3,219/t ($466/t) a week ago. China’s HRC export offers increased by $15/t w-o-w at around $475/t from $460/t FOB a week earlier.
Baosteel, the world’s leading steelmaker, has increased its HRC prices by RMB 200/t ($29/t) m-o-m for April sales compared with prices in March. Additionally, prices of hot-dip galvanised also increased by RMB 200/t ($29/t) m-o-m.
5. Rebar prices increase w-o-w: China’s rebar prices climbed up by RMB 60/t ($9/t) w-o-w to RMB 3170/t ($459/t) on 13 March from RMB 3,110/t ($450/t) a week earlier. The rise reflected the uptrend in SHFE futures, with the May 2026 rebar contract increasing by RMB 62/t ($9/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,141/t ($455/t) on 13 March from RMB 3,079/t ($446/t) a week ago.
Shagang Steel in China has continued to keep its long steel prices unchanged for mid-Mar’26 sales, with no price revisions announced since 11 Sep’25. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($501/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560 ($517/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($504/t)
Outlook
Amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions between US-Israel and Iran, which has created uncertainty around maritime safety and logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese HRC exporters have been encountering serious disruptions in shipments. As producers are unlikely to make significant output cuts, excess supply may shift to the domestic market, putting additional pressure on HRC prices as mills may offer discounts to maintain sales.
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