- Iron ore and billet price rise, coking coal weakens w-o-w
- Global geopolitical tensions boost prices
China’s steel prices showed mixed trends in the week ended 6 March 2026, with rebar prices rising w-o-w and HRC prices falling w-o-w. Moreover, raw material prices also remained mix with prices of iron ore and billet rising slightly while coking coal prices declined w-o-w.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises reached 17.34 million tonnes (mnt) in late February 2026 (21-28 February), down by 780,000 tonnes (t) or 4.3% compared with 18.12 mnt in mid-February 2026. However, inventories rose by 2.63 mnt or 17.9% m-o-m from 14.71 mnt in late-January 2026, and were also 1.03 mnt or 6.3% higher compared with 16.31 mnt recorded in late-February 2025.
1.Iron ore spot prices edge up w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% increased by $1/t w-o-w to $101/dmt CFR China on 05 Mar’26. The uptick was driven by improved sentiment after the government reiterated its commitment to tackle excess capacity in the steel sector, which supported active buying in the spot market. However, supportive import margins and ongoing restocking requirements sustained premiums. Material remained competitive, while high-grade fines also witnessed transactions.
a) Spot pellet premium increases w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet surged up by $1/t to $17.25/t CFR China on 4 Mar.
b) Spot lump premium rise w-o-w: Spot lump premium rose by $0.032/dmtu w-o-w to $0.177/dmtu on 6 Mar.
2. Coking coal weakens on cautious demand, ample supply: The domestic coking coal and coke market in China remained weak on March 5, with stable ex-factory prices. Ample coking coal supply, limited downstream demand, stricter environmental inspections, and low steel mill profitability have constrained production and purchasing, suggesting continued short-term market weakness.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices declined by $16/t to $221/t FOB, similarly, BigMint’s PHCC index for Paradip fell $10/t to $240/t CNF on 6 Mar 2026, marking a two-month low amid cautious buyer sentiment, lower bids, and softer Australian coking coal offers.
3.Billet prices edge up w-o-w on policy optimism and firm costs: Chinese billet prices increased RMB 20/t ($2/t) to RMB 2,930/t ($424/t) on 6 March 2026, compared with RMB 2,910/t ($422/t) on 2 March, supported by improved policy sentiment and firmer raw material costs despite still-muted domestic demand.
At the start of the week, billet prices remained stable as post-Lunar New Year demand recovery was slow and export activity to some Middle East destinations stayed cautious amid geopolitical tensions. Rising iron ore and coke prices, however, helped limit downside pressure.
Midweek, prices moved higher after China announced a 4.5-5% GDP growth target and Tangshan authorities implemented steel output cuts, tightening near-term supply. Gradually declining social inventories and firm raw material demand further supported the market.
By 6 March, billet gained additional support from positive sentiment following China’s congressional meetings signalling stronger policy backing for economic development.
4. Domestic HRC prices decline w-o-w: Domestic HRC prices in China dropped by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,040/t ($440/t) on 6 march, from RMB 3,060/t ($443/t). Meanwhile, SHFE HRC futures (May 2026 contract), fell by RMB 11/t (2/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,219/t ($466/t) on 6 March, compared with RMB 3,208/t ($465/t) a week earlier. China’s HRC export declined by $5/t w-o-w at around $460/t from $465/t FOB a week earlier.
Prices dropped as there hasn’t been any clear improvement in demand so far. Overall steel inventories also remain high, keeping steel prices under downward pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance.
5. Rebar prices up w-o-w: China’s rebar prices marginally up by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,110/t ($450/t) on 6 March from RMB 3,100/t ($449/t) a week earlier. The drop mirrored the weakening trend in SHFE futures, with the May 2026 rebar contract falling by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,079/t ($446/t) on 6 March from RMB 3,059/t ($443/t) a week ago.
China’s Shagang Steel has continued to keep its long steel prices unchanged for early-Mar’26 sales, with no price revisions announced since 11 Sep’25. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($500/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560 ($516/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($503/t)
Outlook
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed global oil prices higher, while shipping costs are also expected to increase amid the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US. Higher raw material costs are providing support to steel prices. In the coming week, steel prices are expected to remain elevated, with overall market movement largely dependent on how global developments evolve.
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