- Domestic HRC, billet tags down by $11/t
- Australian PHCC prices increase by $8/t
China’s steel market saw mixed performance this week, impacted by declining SHFE futures and global economic shifts. Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices dropped w-o-w, while billet tags also saw a decline. In the raw materials segment, spot iron ore prices fell, but coking coal showed an upward trend.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) revealed that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises stood at 15.23 million tonnes (mnt) in late-March 2025. Inventory levels decreased by 1.67 mnt or 9.9% from 16.91 mnt in mid-March 2025.
1. Iron ore spot prices fall by $4/t w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines price dipped by $4/tonne (t) w-o-w to $98/t CFR China on 11 April amid weak buying interest and cautious market sentiment. Trading activity remained subdued, as escalating US-China trade tensions and upcoming tariff hikes created uncertainty across the seaborne market. Domestic concentrate prices edged down w-o-w, while hot metal output stayed firm.
a) Spot pellet premium increases w-o-w: The spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellets increased by $0.35/t w-o-w to $13.25/t CFR China on 9 Apr.
b) Spot lump premium stable w-o-w: The spot lump premium remained stable w-o-w at $0.1450/dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) on 11 Apr.
2. Coking coal prices up w-o-w: Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) was assessed at $177/t FOB, up by $8/t w-o-w. Prices firmed up amid supply concerns following accidents at Australia’s two leading mines – Moranbah North and Appin – last week.
3. Chinese billet prices fell by RMB 80/t ($11/t) w-o-w: Billet prices in China’s Tangshan dropped by RMB 80/t ($11/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,970/t ($406/t), including 13% VAT, on 11 April. The decline came amid weak domestic demand, sluggish downstream activity, and concerns over rising inventories. Sentiment was further dampened by ongoing US-China trade tensions, as China remains excluded from the recent 90-day US tariff suspension. SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 delivery) also slipped by RMB 31/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,279/t ($448/t), reflecting cautious sentiment amid thin trading and limited downstream buying.
4. Domestic HRC prices fall w-o-w: Chinese HRC offers fell by RMB 80/t ($11/t) to RMB 3,250/t ($445/t) from RMB 3,330/t ($456/t) this week, following the decline in SHFE HRC futures following the Qingming festival holidays in China. SHFE HRC futures decreased by RMB 129/t ($18/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,235/t ($443/t) as of RMB 3,364/t ($461/t) on 3 April 2025. This decline in prices is attributed to growing concerns over global trade disputes, which have weakened market sentiment and led to a drop in China’s domestic prices. China’s export offers remained stable for the week at $465/t.
Steel giant Baosteel rolled over HRC prices for May’25 sales, marking the second consecutive month of stability, according to BigMint’s sources. Additionally, hot-dip galvanised prices also remained unchanged.
5. Domestic rebar prices drop w-o-w: China’s rebar offers dropped by RMB 90/t ($12/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,230/t ($443/t) from RMB 3,320/t ($455/t) last week, mirroring the fall in SHFE rebar futures. Additionally, SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 contract) stood at RMB 3,126/t ($428/t) for the week, down by RMB 109/t ($15/t) from 3,235/t ($443/t) as of 3 April 2025.
China’s Shagang Steel kept prices of its long steel products – rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods – flat for mid-April 2025 sales. Revised prices stood as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,350/t ($460/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,460/t ($474/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,370/t ($462/t)
Outlook
China’s domestic steel market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to ongoing trade tensions with the US. However, a trade agreement or policy stimulus is needed to reverse the weak trend and support a sustained price rebound.
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