- Coke supplies tighten in Hebei
- Rebar tags edge down as futures drop
China’s domestic steel product prices, including billet and rebar, declined w-o-w, while HRC remained stable. In the raw materials segment, trends were mixed, with iron ore prices rising and coking coal prices easing w-o-w.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has announced that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises in mid-August 2025 stood at 15.67 million tonnes (mnt), increasing by 600,000 tonnes (t) or 4% as compared to 15.07 mnt in early-August 2025.
1. Iron ore spot prices rise higher w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines spot price surged by $4/t w-o-w to $104/dmt CFR China on 29 Aug. The rise was largely supported by China’s move to relax housing rules in Shanghai and expectations of a possible US Fed rate cut in Oct’25. Steel mills kept up interest in blending high and low-grade ores, supported by stable margins and stronger high-grade premiums.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports fell by 0.77 mnt w-o-w at 130.33 mnt on 28 August, as per SteelHome data.
a) Spot pellet premium stood firm w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet held stable w-o-w at $18.95/t CFR China on 27 Aug.
b) Spot lump premium stable w-o-w: Spot lump premium held largely stable at $0.1825/dmtu on 29 Aug.
2. Coking coal prices edge down w-o-w: China’s met coke market stayed resilient, though regional dynamics differed. Hebei’s environmental and transport curbs ahead of the 3 September parade tightened supply, forcing mills to trim output amid low inventories. Meanwhile, Australian premium hard coking coal slipped $3/t w-o-w to $185/t FOB, a trend that could ease cost pressure on met coke going forward.
3. Billet prices inch down by RMB 20/t ($3/t): Tangshan billet prices fell by RMB 20/t ($3/t) over the week, closing at RMB 3,010/t. SHFE Oct’25 rebar futures dropped RMB 29/t ($4/t) w-o-w to settle at RMB 3,090/t.
Domestic billet prices rose at the start of the week but turned downward mid-week, extending the decline through the weekend.
Export offers firmed by $3-5/t on limited supply, with support from iron ore at $103/t and strong coke sentiment. However, by mid-week prices began to ease as oversupply from rising crude steel output and higher mill operating rates pressured the market.
Construction demand remained muted, exports softened, and plate mills trimmed offers by $5/t, even as HRC inquiries rose.
4. Domestic HRC prices remain stable w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC offers held steady w-o-w at RMB 3,220/t ($459/t). With the seasonal slowdown nearing, prices remain undervalued, though short-term environmental production curbs in northern China provided some support. SHFE HRC futures rose by RMB 15/t ($22/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,366/t ($485/t) on 29 August, from RMB 3,351/t ($463/t) on 22 August.
In contrast, Chinese HRC export offers slipped $5/t w-o-w to $480/t, down from $485/t the previous week, amid concerns over potential restrictions on non-VAT cargo exports.
5. Domestic rebar prices fall w-o-w: China’s rebar fell by RMB 70/t ($18/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,220/t ($462/t) against RMB 3,290/t ($444/t), a week ago amid falling SHFE futures. SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 contract) stood at RMB 3,107/t ($463/t) on 29 August, decreased by RMB 9/t ($22/t) as compared to RMB 3,116/t ($435/t) on 22 August.
Outlook
China’s steel prices may see a near-term upside, supported by firmer raw material costs and improved sentiment from policy easing. However, weak construction demand, rising inventories, and higher crude steel output pose downside risks. Market direction will hinge on upcoming government meetings and China-US trade talks, which could add volatility to price trends.
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