- HRC and rebar prices edged higher on cost support.
- Weak demand and cautious buying limited broader price gains.
Steel prices in China showed a mixed trend during the week ended 14 August, with rebar and HRC prices increased while billet prices remained stable. Raw material markets, with iron ore prices remaining stable, while coke prices remain firm in the week.
Raw materials front
Iron ore spot prices steady w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% remained rangebound w-o-w at $95/dmt CFR China on 13 Aug’26. Australian mainstream grades remained relatively attractive in the seaborne market, supported by favourable import margins compared with blend fines. However, demand for iron ore fines remained weak amid softer Chinese steel exports (which fell 2% m-o-m), while increasing availability from the Simandou project continued to weigh on sentiment.
High-grade ore premiums narrowed amid softer demand, although lump prices continued to find support from low portside lump inventories. Limited availability of alternative direct-charge materials also helped keep lump prices firm.
a) Spot pellet premium stable w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet remained firm at $23.8/t CFR China on 13 August.
b) Spot lump premium rose w-o-w: Spot lump premium edged up by $0.026/t w-o-w to $0.2710/t CFR China on 12 August.
Coking coal prices firm on tight supply; Seaborne gains driven by China: China’s coke prices are expected to rise despite widening producer losses and production cuts, while the resumption of blast furnace operations provided modest demand support.
In the seaborne market, Australian PHCC prices rose sharply by $11/t w-o-w to $225/t FOB, driven mainly by stronger buying interest and higher offers in China. Consequently, BigMint’s coking coal index increased by $11/t w-o-w to $245/t CFR Paradip; however, the rise had limited impact on the Indian market as domestic demand remained subdued and Indian buyers showed limited urgency for spot imports.
Billet stable, rebar edges higher w-o-w amid improving sentiment: Chinese billet and rebar markets remained mixed during the week ended 14 August. Billet prices fluctuated within a narrow range but ended unchanged w-o-w, while rebar futures edged higher. Falling social steel inventories, improving regional sales, expectations of stronger September demand, and firm raw-material costs provided support. However, weak seasonal demand and cautious buying limited the recovery.
BigMint assessed domestic billet at RMB 2,940/t ($434/t) on 14 August, unchanged w-o-w from RMB 2,940/t on 7 August. Prices moved between RMB 2,930-2,940/t during the week before recovering to the previous week’s level. Declining inventories and better regional sales supported sentiment, while higher coking coal costs and iron ore consumption provided additional cost-side support.
Falling inventories and expectations of stronger September demand supported prices, although subdued downstream consumption kept gains limited. EAF mills continued reducing output because of losses, while some blast furnace mills resumed operations after maintenance.
In the export market, Chinese billet offers softened to around $448/t FOB China, down $5/t w-o-w. Offers had earlier risen to around $453/t FOB as leading mills tested higher prices, but mixed export demand and active competing-origin material later pressured offers.
Steel price trend
Domestic HRC prices rise: China’s domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increased by RMB 50/t ($7/t) w-o-w to around RMB 3,150/t ($467/t) on 14 August, compared with RMB 3,100/t ($460/t) a week earlier. Furthermore, SHFE HRC futures (October 2026 contract) were up by RMB 18/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,260/t ($484/t) from RMB 3,242/t ($481/t) in the previous week.
Furthermore, Baosteel has raised its domestic HRC and hot-dip galvanised iron (HDGI) prices by RMB 50/t ($7/t) m-o-m for September 2026 sales. The increase appears to be based on expectations of improved downstream restocking and buying activity as the summer slowdown eases and the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season approaches.
China’s HRC market moved higher this week as tighter safety inspections and shrinking coking coal and coke supplies pushed raw material costs up. This stronger cost support lifted HRC prices and futures, although sluggish off-season demand and cautious buying limited downstream acceptance of higher-priced material.
Chinese HRC export offers remained stable at around $495/t FOB Rizhao this week, amid muted trading activity and subdued buying interest.
Rebar prices inch up w-o-w: China’s domestic rebar prices marginally up RMB 10/tonne (t) ($1/t) w-o-w to around RMB 3,140/t ($466/t) on 14 August from RMB 3,130/t ($467/t) a week earlier. However, SHFE rebar futures (October 2026 contract) marginally up by RMB 5/t ($0.7/t) to RMB 3,015/t ($447/t) from RMB 3,010/t ($446/t).
However, China’s Shagang Steel has kept its long steel prices unchanged for mid-August 2026 (11-20 August) sales. The producer maintained prices for rebars (16-25 mm) at RMB 3,300/t ($489/t), coiled rebars (8-10 mm) at RMB 3,430/t ($509/t), and wire rods (6-10 mm) at RMB 3,340/t ($495/t).
The rollover comes amid continued pressure on China’s construction-steel market, where sluggish end-user demand, seasonal weakness and elevated inventories are limiting the scope for a sustained price recovery. Rebar mill losses widened to around RMB 200/t ($30/t) in July, prompting producers to advance maintenance schedules and reduce output on commercial grounds.
Outlook
The domestic steel market is expected to remain volatile and range-bound next week, as a weak global macroeconomic recovery, moderate domestic demand, and uneven market transactions are likely to limit upward price momentum. Meanwhile, weakening supply growth and softer cost support may further constrain price gains. As a result, HRC and construction steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with product-wise performance likely to remain differentiated.
Leave a Reply