China: Thermal coal imports drop 27% y-o-y in Jul’25

• Ample domestic supply, renewables use cause y-o-y drop
• Imports rise m-o-m on production curbs, seasonal demand

Mysteel Global: China imported 25.24 million tonnes (mnt) of thermal coal (with lignite) in July, down by 26.7% from a year earlier, although the volume recovered by 10.9% from June’s low, new data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC) showed.

Indonesia remained the top thermal coal supplier to China, but imports of 13.05 mnt from the Southeast Asian country last month were 31.7% lower y-o-y, larger than the 29.7% y-o-y decline recorded in June, despite a 12.8% m-o-m rise. Australia followed, with shipments of 5.61 mnt, down by 6.8% y-o-y but higher by 32.4% m-o-m. Shipments from Russia stood low at 3.75 mnt, slumping further by 27.9% y-o-y and 17.7% m-o-m, the customs data indicated.

The y-o-y declines across major origins suggest China’s import weakness was not supplier- or grade-specific, with both low-calorific value (CV) Indonesian coal and high-CV Australian and Russian cargoes affected, Mysteel Global noted.

China’s monthly thermal coal imports have consistently recorded y-o-y declines since February. For January-July, the total imports slumped 15.6% from the same period last year to 185.56 mnt, GACC data showed.

Analysts attributed the drop to ample domestic supply and China’s ongoing energy transition, as renewables increasingly displace coal in the power mix.

Still, July’s m-o-m rebound reflected seasonal demand recovery as well as emerging supply contraction across the country due to stricter overproduction checks and heavy rains in key mining hubs.

In July, China’s raw coal production declined by 3.8% y-o-y and 9.5% m-o-m to 380.99 mnt, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed.

Looking ahead, with China’s thermal coal market in August still marked by a tight supply-demand balance, imports are expected to rise further m-o-m, Mysteel Global predicts.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.