China: Steel prices to rise slightly in Mar’25 as demand recovers, says NDRC

• Market traditionally sees its peak season in Mar-Apr
• Sales, purchase price expectation indices rise m-o-m

Mysteel: China’s steel market is expected to see a modest uptick in March as downstream demand gains momentum, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in its latest survey of the steel sector, released on 14 March. The survey covered major wholesale steel markets in South China, Shanghai, and Tianjin.

The survey assessed six key indices, revealing further increases in both the Sales Price Expectation Index and the Purchase Price Expectation Index for March, indicating growing optimism and a bullish outlook in the domestic steel market.

The Sales Price Expectation Index for this month edged up to 74.5%, a 5.5 percentage point increase from February, while the Purchase Price Expectation Index rose 5.6 percentage points to 70.8%.

The commission noted that building contractors had been slow to resume operations after the Chinese New Year holiday (28 January-4 February), which led to weak steel demand in February. However, as temperatures rise across the country this month, demand is expected to recover, as reflected in the NDRC’s Sales Volume Expectation Index, which surged to 85.2%, up 30.4 percentage points from February.

“China’s steel market is entering its traditional peak season in March-April, with demand picking up and steelmakers increasing production amid a promising profit outlook,” the NDRC stated. The Sales Profit Margin Expectation Index also climbed up to 63.4% for March, a 13 percentage point increase from February.

Stock levels are expected to decline this month as robust demand absorbs the increase in supply, the report suggested. The Inventory Expectation Index dropped to 41.7%, down 11.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Although production costs are seen rising further in March, the increase is likely to be smaller than during last month. The Sales Cost Expectation Index dipped slightly to 64.8%, down 1.4 percentage points, but remaining well above the 50% threshold. The dip was mainly attributed to weaker cost support from metallurgical coke and coking coal prices.

Meanwhile, the report also cautioned that global trade friction and mounting tariffs could weigh on market sentiment throughout the month.

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