China: Steel inventories decline 8% in late-Sep’26

• Pre-holiday restocking supports inventory drawdowns despite subdued demand
• Daily finished steel output increases 11% even as crude steel production declines

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventories at key CISA-affiliated mills stood at around 15.65 million tonnes (mnt) during late September (21-30 September 2026), down by 1.43 mnt or 8.4% from 17.08 mnt in mid-September.

Moreover, m-o-m, inventories dropped by 0.60 mnt or 3.7% compared with 16.25 mnt recorded in late August 2026.

Steel inventories at key Chinese mills declined in late September as buyers and traders increased procurement ahead of the upcoming National Day holiday to secure supplies. This pre-holiday restocking supported inventory drawdowns despite subdued end-user demand. Inventories held by traders and distributors also fell during the period, providing some support to the market.

However, stock levels remained elevated compared with the same period in previous years, indicating that the supply-demand imbalance remained largely unresolved. On a y-o-y basis, inventories rose by 0.98 mnt, or 6.7%, from 14.67 mnt recorded during the corresponding period in last year 2025.

Production volumes

The average daily crude steel production of CISA-affiliated mills stood at around 1.88 mnt in late September, down by 2.1% from 1.92 mnt recorded in mid-September. Meanwhile, average daily pig iron output stood at 1.753 mnt in late-September, slightly down by 1% from 1.77 mnt in mid-September. Conversely, average daily finished steel output stood at around 2.09 mnt in late-September, up by 10.9% from 1.855 mnt in mid-September.